SEVERE WEATHER / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 20, 2015…11:05 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of the PERMIAN BASIN AND SW TO CNTRL TX…

There is a MARGINAL risk across parts of the SRN PLAINS…ARKLATEX…LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY…WRN TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Based on analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software this morning, utilizing the NAM-WRF forecast soundings, the best chance of severe weather may extend somewhat further into a portion of eastern TX.  The most potent and probable severe threat should lie within the slight risk area.  Forecast sounding indices end to indicate more of an environment for multi cellular storms early on.  Indices indicate a very good probability for hail, and damaging severe thunderstorm gusts.  This is based on the forecast sounding values from earlier this a.m. as follows:

SBCAPE: 3000-4000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000-3000 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -8 to -10
CRAVEN BROOKS INDEX: 30,000 to 60,000+

These values indicate a very unstable environment with sufficient lift for hail.

Analysis of various tornado parameters in the forecast soundings indicate the best probability for tornadoes lies within the slight risk zone from early afternoon into early evening, however some isolated activity could occur outside the slight risk zone, and is depicted in the following outline.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5nam.tor1

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening. 

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You will need to click on them for the most current information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS DOPPLER RADAR
latest_Small

NWS HAZARD, WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:

The tropics remain quiet again this morning.

The area of disturbed weather I mentioned yesterday just north of western Panama is moving very slowly into the EPAC.  Satellite loop imagery from RAMSDIS this morning shows there could be some slight cyclonic turning beginning.  A wind shift was noted in the surface station overlay.

NOAA TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

RAMSDIS SATELLITE FLOATER IMAGE LOOPS

Just for giggles and grins, the GFS once again is bringing a solution of another sub-tropical low developing in the southern Bahamas in about 2 weeks.  Do I think at the moment this is erroneous?  Yes.  Can it be totally ruled out?  No.  I will be watching the model for consistency since it did well with ANA, and will look for other models solutions as time goes on. 

GFS 360 HOUR
GFS.360

GFS 384 HOUR
GFS.384

1000-500GFS.384

I will not be available during the next 3 days for forecasting,  due to my work schedule

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 – 10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 20, 2015…11:05 A.M. EDT

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for your updates Storm! Sounds like we may get some pretty good rains come Monday & Tuesday here in SE TX.

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm for the update.hurricane season starts in 10 days.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks for the report, Storm, and I hope people in the higher risk area fared well. We were toward the southeastern edge of the marginal area and received just race rainfall in my area (Mandeville/Madisonville, Louisiana). You are appreciated.

    • Greg Goodman says:

      Hello dellamom I hope you are doing well?

      • dellamom says:

        I am well. How are you? I always pray for you and Mike in the Mobile area when our bad weather heads east. I hope neither of us gets hit this season. 🙂

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