SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS..ISSUED MAY 19, 2015…9:30 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the SRN HIGH PLAINS…

There is a MARGINAL risk from SWRN TX TO SERN OK and across parts of the NERN U.S.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROB
day1probotlk_1300_torn

Analysis of the SPC  outlook and severe weather forecast software indicate the biggest threat to be from gusty, thunderstorm winds…albeit a decent probability for hail in some stronger severe storms may occur within the slight risk area over TX.  Based on graphical output from the NAM-WRF model using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, various forecast sounding parameters dictate the greatest probability for tornadoes occurring, lie within the 5% tornado outline in the SPC map, however may extend to other areas as outlined in the F5 DATA map as follows:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROB
f5nam.tor1

SPC indicates tornadoes could form south of a forecast MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) along the dryline this afternoon.  The above outline indicates probs from 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT.  The following graphics depict the dryline this afternoon.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF DRYLINE POSITION 4:00 P.M. CDT
f5nam.dryline4

F5 DATA NAM-WRF DRYLINE POSITION 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5nam.dryline7

Residents within the risk areas over TX should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening.  Residents in the NERN U.S. should monitor NWS statements for any changes to the risks in their area.

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You will need to click on them for the most current information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS DOPPLER RADAR
latest_Small

NWS HAZARD, WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:

The tropics remain quiet again this morning.

NOAA TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

However, an area of disturbed weather is located just north of the western portion of Panama this morning, and is centered in the RAMSDIS floater imagery.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE FLOATER IMAGE LOOPS

Currently, westerly shear is very high over the area, and is expected to remain unfavorable for any development in the area.  Analysis of the forecast wind shear indicates upper level winds to become favorable over the area in about 72 hours.  Close, but no cigar, as current and forecast steering layers maps indicate this area should slowly move into the EPAC, which based on forecast wind shear values, could have the potential to become a system on the EPAC side.  The GFS slightly hints at this, and the CMC does develop a system.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 – 10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS..ISSUED MAY 19, 2015…9:30 A.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm.

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