SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the SRN HIGH PLAINS…
There is a MARGINAL risk from SWRN TX TO SERN OK and across parts of the NERN U.S.
Analysis of the SPC outlook and severe weather forecast software indicate the biggest threat to be from gusty, thunderstorm winds…albeit a decent probability for hail in some stronger severe storms may occur within the slight risk area over TX. Based on graphical output from the NAM-WRF model using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, various forecast sounding parameters dictate the greatest probability for tornadoes occurring, lie within the 5% tornado outline in the SPC map, however may extend to other areas as outlined in the F5 DATA map as follows:
SPC indicates tornadoes could form south of a forecast MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) along the dryline this afternoon. The above outline indicates probs from 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT. The following graphics depict the dryline this afternoon.
Residents within the risk areas over TX should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening. Residents in the NERN U.S. should monitor NWS statements for any changes to the risks in their area.
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. You will need to click on them for the most current information.
TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:
The tropics remain quiet again this morning.
However, an area of disturbed weather is located just north of the western portion of Panama this morning, and is centered in the RAMSDIS floater imagery.
Currently, westerly shear is very high over the area, and is expected to remain unfavorable for any development in the area. Analysis of the forecast wind shear indicates upper level winds to become favorable over the area in about 72 hours. Close, but no cigar, as current and forecast steering layers maps indicate this area should slowly move into the EPAC, which based on forecast wind shear values, could have the potential to become a system on the EPAC side. The GFS slightly hints at this, and the CMC does develop a system.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 – 10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS