SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
Good day everyone!
The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS OF S TX…
There is a MARGINAL risk ELSEWHERE FROM S TX TO RED RIVER REGION OF SWRN OK/NW TX…and for PORTIONS N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
Based on analysis of the outlook text, and solution from the NAM-WRF model via F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the most likely threat will be in the form of hail and damaging wind gusts for the Northern High Plains area. This will also hold true for TX., however certain parameters do indicate a good probability for tornadoes to develop with the strongest supercells. Indices analyzed indicate the best chance for tornadic activity to occur within the outlined area today, probably along the lines of afternoon through early evening hours. The most likely area for tornadoes today should be within the slight risk outline, albeit forecast sounding data tends to suggest a fair prob. of tornadic activity within the marginal risk area.
Residents in the risk ares should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements and advisories this afternoon and evening.
The SPC further indicates severe weather risks through Sunday, with a MARGINAL risk in the current Day 2 Outlook, an ENHANCED risk on Friday, and a probability for SAT / SUN. Please refer to, and click the linked graphic for these forecast risks. I have to work over the next 3 days, so please use the link to your advantage.
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. You will need to click on them for the most current information.
TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION:
The tropics remain quiet as expected for this time of the year.
Analysis of global models this morning indicates the GFS has dropped its solution of an area of low pressure developing in the southern Bahamas in about 12 days. Satellite loop imagery yesterday evening did show cyclonic turning in cloudiness over Cuba, however vorticity maps indicate this is associated with a mid-upper level low.
In reviewing certain things this morning, it is pretty apparent El Nino has taken hold. Displayed are a couple of SST anomaly charts clearly showing El Nino in the Equatorial Pacific.
You can also pick out how much cooler the Atlantic MDR anomalies are, and how we have a reversal on the Atlantic Tripole. Looking at the anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX) and off the SEUS, as stated in my pre-season outlook, close in development will have to be looked for during the early part of the season, which as we just saw with ANA, lends credence to a U.S. landfall.
Based on analysis of the SOI this morning, it still remains strongly negative, indicating below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. This allows for trade winds over the Equatorial Pacific to blow from west to east, allowing for the warmer waters (sub-surface) in the western pacific to push east toward the coast of South America, which make their way to the surface once hitting the coast. As long as the SOI remains in this phase, the current El Nino will remain in place. This is just one negating factor for the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI)
As stated, the Atlantic Ocean MDR remains much cooler than average. The one factor, other than the SAL outbreaks we have noticed already, is the NAO has been mainly in a positive phase. This implies stronger easterly trades, causing greater evaporational cooling, and upwelling off the African coast.
The current NAO forecast does indicate a possible weakening of the NAO, for a period of about 2 weeks, which could allow for some slight warming in the Atlantic.
The forecast outlook for the MJO, based on the dynamic modeling, forecasts a weak signal for the remainder of the month. Should none of the above items and values change, or change very little, we should be looking at a below average season, as forecast. As we get deeper into the hurricane season, I will be attentive to any changes that may occur.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS