SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 12, 2015…11:05 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

Good day everyone!

The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS NM AND W/SW TX…PORTIONS OF NC/VA TIDEWATER TO PIEDMONT…PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND…PORTIONS NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NW STATES…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (linked to outlook page)
day1otlk_1300

Analysis of data this morning, doesn’t indicate anything very significant.  The SPC outlook text pretty much covers what model graphics indicated from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, based on forecast soundings for the day.

The SPC has also designated a threat for severe weather in days 4 thru 6 in the 4 – 8 day severe probability outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You will need to click on them for the most current information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS HAZARD, WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION:

Of course being this early, nothing going on at the moment.

Analysis of global models this morning shows the GFS hinting at another low, over the southern Bahamas area in about 12 days from this morning, which is fairly far out in the period.  None of the other models indicate this, as they only go out to 7 – 10 days.  I will be keeping tabs on this, as both the GFS and CMC did the best job at initialization of ANA much earlier than the other global models.  Going to look at run to run consistency as time allows, and whether or not other models begin to show anything.  There is always the chance this could be one of the infamous GFS ghost storms, as there is some discrepancy in supporting features.  Right now, upper level winds do not look favorable around that time period, however the area will be in a setup, something similar to what spawned ANA, as it will be under the influence of the east side of an upper level trof.  The MJO “could” be favorable, according the filtered forecast OLR modeling, but not shown by dynamic forecast models.  The OLR modeling does however, closely match the most recent upward vertical velocities in the 200 hpa velocity potential anomalies (green indicating favored areas, or upward motion).

GFS 06Z
GFS

FILTERED OLR ANOMALY FORECAST
MJO.forecast.olr

200 HPA VERTICAL VELOCITIES
am_ir_monthly_60E_1

500 mb height anomalies would support a low forming.  Although there is no sign of lowering pressures in that area, higher pressure heights to the north, would tend to cause surface convergence to the south, over the area.

500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
z500nanom_f312_usbg

I will keep an eye on this.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s