SEVERE WEATHER RISK: MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
Good day everyone!
The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS NM AND W/SW TX…PORTIONS OF NC/VA TIDEWATER TO PIEDMONT…PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND…PORTIONS NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NW STATES…
Analysis of data this morning, doesn’t indicate anything very significant. The SPC outlook text pretty much covers what model graphics indicated from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, based on forecast soundings for the day.
The SPC has also designated a threat for severe weather in days 4 thru 6 in the 4 – 8 day severe probability outlook
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. You will need to click on them for the most current information.
TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION:
Of course being this early, nothing going on at the moment.
Analysis of global models this morning shows the GFS hinting at another low, over the southern Bahamas area in about 12 days from this morning, which is fairly far out in the period. None of the other models indicate this, as they only go out to 7 – 10 days. I will be keeping tabs on this, as both the GFS and CMC did the best job at initialization of ANA much earlier than the other global models. Going to look at run to run consistency as time allows, and whether or not other models begin to show anything. There is always the chance this could be one of the infamous GFS ghost storms, as there is some discrepancy in supporting features. Right now, upper level winds do not look favorable around that time period, however the area will be in a setup, something similar to what spawned ANA, as it will be under the influence of the east side of an upper level trof. The MJO “could” be favorable, according the filtered forecast OLR modeling, but not shown by dynamic forecast models. The OLR modeling does however, closely match the most recent upward vertical velocities in the 200 hpa velocity potential anomalies (green indicating favored areas, or upward motion).
500 mb height anomalies would support a low forming. Although there is no sign of lowering pressures in that area, higher pressure heights to the north, would tend to cause surface convergence to the south, over the area.
I will keep an eye on this.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS