BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 05, 2105…10:45 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  MEDIUM

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

This office is now switching to Tropical Weather Forecast mode.  I will try, if time allows, to include severe weather, however, the added analyses would consume more time than I’d prefer, making my synopsis post later in issuance.  Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center website home page for severe weather information in the interim.

SPC HOME PAGE GRAPHIC (LINKED)
day1otlk-overview

The NHC has updated the Tropical Weather Outlook as of analysis this morning, and the probability is now MEDIUM (40%) chance of cyclone formation during the next 5 days.  I

NHC GTWO
two_atl_5d1

Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the area of disturbed weather which was located mainly over the Caribbean Sea and Cuba yesterday, has expended in size, and is now concentrated over the Bahamas.  Recent loop images now tend to indicate that a broad area of low pressure may be trying to develop within the red circled area I have drawn on the visible satellite image.

RAMSDIS VISIBLE SATELLITE
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

RAMSDIS VISIBLE LOOP
2tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP
latest_east_vis_conus

Analysis of global and regional models are beginning to show more discrepancy, and is to be expected until we get a bona fide closed surface circulation for the models to analyze.  The CMC develops the low a little further east than it was showing in its previous solutions.  The current runs analyzed of the models indicate the system to now move initially very slowly toward the N or NNE, then being steered back toward the W – WNW as mid level ridging builds back to the north of the low.  Right now, the majority of the models indicate this, and is also noted in the most recent update of the steering layers forecast.  This is not uncommon for track forecast to change frequently during the formative stages of a system, given no closed low level circulation.

ECMWF
ECMWF
GFS
GFS
CMC
CMC
NAM
NAM

The current wind shear forecast from the CMC and GFS still indicates upper level winds to take a turn toward a more favorable upper pattern, with the beginnings of an upper level anticyclone prior to the system coming ashore or moving very close to the coast.  This could pose a very, very slim chance of the wind field trying to transition to more of a tropical state, however the current SST’s are not yet warm enough to support a tropical system.  SST’s are however warm enough to allow for subtropical development.  Based on the findings in my analysis, I do believe we should see a subtropical depression or storm occur with this area of disturbed weather.  It is noted, that model consensus begins to weaken this as it gets close to the coastal areas.  So, for now, things are somewhat up in the air, until a closed surface circulation materializes, and some better organization of this disturbance occurs.  Pressure readings in the Bahamas were ranging 30.06 in – 30.10 in….no indication of falling surface pressures yet.

CMC WIND SHEAR FORECAST
CMC850200shear21
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS.850200shear13

CURRENT SST GRAPHICS
usatlant.c
SSTover_18

Residents from the GA to NC coastal areas should continue to monitor this situation during the next 72 – 96 hours.  Again, this should at best, only attain minimal tropical storm force winds, with the biggest problem lost likely being in the form of heavy rain flooding some low lying areas, and minor coastal flooding / minor beach erosion at high tide.

I will not be available again until Friday.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 05, 2105…10:45 A.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Well, we do have, “Sub-Tropical” storm, Ana. 45mph. top winds.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    It has been a bit since I have checked in. Not sure if you have already posted about it or not, but what do you think of the upcoming Hurricane Season?

  3. dellamom says:

    Storm, I finally opened a new PayPal account an sent a long over due donation. I hope it helps.

  4. dellamom says:

    I see where the Atlantic system has been given a red balloon (high) and expected to upgrade to subtropical today or tomorrow. Prayers to all in the path.

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Do you think this thing could find it’s way to YHZ (Halifax, NS) ? New girlfriend still lives there until I can get her stateside.

  6. originallt says:

    Thank you so much Storm. I see the NAM is still showing a bit more of a strong system, but I’ll go by what you say. Thanks, again!

  7. dellamom says:

    I have been unable to check in the past few days, but have been hearing TV weather people mentioning the Bahamas/Atlantic situation and thinking, “Yeah, I already heard that from Storm.” Thank you for sharing your expertise and your limited time availability with us. You have no idea how many people you touch.

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