BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 05, 2105…10:45 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  MEDIUM

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

This office is now switching to Tropical Weather Forecast mode.  I will try, if time allows, to include severe weather, however, the added analyses would consume more time than I’d prefer, making my synopsis post later in issuance.  Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center website home page for severe weather information in the interim.

SPC HOME PAGE GRAPHIC (LINKED)

The NHC has updated the Tropical Weather Outlook as of analysis this morning, and the probability is now MEDIUM (40%) chance of cyclone formation during the next 5 days.  I

NHC GTWO

Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the area of disturbed weather which was located mainly over the Caribbean Sea and Cuba yesterday, has expended in size, and is now concentrated over the Bahamas.  Recent loop images now tend to indicate that a broad area of low pressure may be trying to develop within the red circled area I have drawn on the visible satellite image.

RAMSDIS VISIBLE SATELLITE

RAMSDIS VISIBLE LOOP

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

Analysis of global and regional models are beginning to show more discrepancy, and is to be expected until we get a bona fide closed surface circulation for the models to analyze.  The CMC develops the low a little further east than it was showing in its previous solutions.  The current runs analyzed of the models indicate the system to now move initially very slowly toward the N or NNE, then being steered back toward the W – WNW as mid level ridging builds back to the north of the low.  Right now, the majority of the models indicate this, and is also noted in the most recent update of the steering layers forecast.  This is not uncommon for track forecast to change frequently during the formative stages of a system, given no closed low level circulation.

ECMWF

GFS

CMC

NAM

The current wind shear forecast from the CMC and GFS still indicates upper level winds to take a turn toward a more favorable upper pattern, with the beginnings of an upper level anticyclone prior to the system coming ashore or moving very close to the coast.  This could pose a very, very slim chance of the wind field trying to transition to more of a tropical state, however the current SST’s are not yet warm enough to support a tropical system.  SST’s are however warm enough to allow for subtropical development.  Based on the findings in my analysis, I do believe we should see a subtropical depression or storm occur with this area of disturbed weather.  It is noted, that model consensus begins to weaken this as it gets close to the coastal areas.  So, for now, things are somewhat up in the air, until a closed surface circulation materializes, and some better organization of this disturbance occurs.  Pressure readings in the Bahamas were ranging 30.06 in – 30.10 in….no indication of falling surface pressures yet.

CMC WIND SHEAR FORECAST

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

CURRENT SST GRAPHICS

Residents from the GA to NC coastal areas should continue to monitor this situation during the next 72 – 96 hours.  Again, this should at best, only attain minimal tropical storm force winds, with the biggest problem lost likely being in the form of heavy rain flooding some low lying areas, and minor coastal flooding / minor beach erosion at high tide.

I will not be available again until Friday.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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