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Good evening everyone.
First, KUDOS to my friend and fellow forecaster Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather for picking up on this, as I just got on tonight to look at model runs.
Based on model analysis of the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and FIM 8 global models, it seems that the models are sniffing out a “POSSIBLE” Sub-Tropical entity developing in an area anywhere from the NW Bahamas, to off the NC/SC area by Wed., May 6.
Before anyone gets all excited, this isn’t concrete as of yet, as it appears the models have only latched on in the last 2 runs. A breakdown of the models shows the ECMWF developing an inverted trof just above the NW Bahamas, and developing a very weak area of low pressure which moves to a position a few hundred miles off the VACAPES area to the east by Fri. May 08.
The GFS and CMC are both a little more bullish, with a stronger low, and keep the low much closer to the coast before moving away in the vicinity of the VACAPES.
The FIM 8 model starts this out in the same area, but with a much slower solution at the moment.
So, position and timing are pretty much split at the moment, and albeit this usually occurs at initialization, and is at least 7 – 8 days out, it is a little unusual for 4 models to agree this early in the initialization stage of developing a low in or near the same location.
Analysis indicates IF this does come to fruition, it could be a SubTropical low, as the ECMWF, GFS and CMC are trending toward a “warm core” low, with the strongest surface winds out and away from the center. One item that keeps me a little hesitant on this however, is the current wind shear forecast, which is only going out to 180 hours at the moment, albeit the CMC did show a trend of a possible upper level anticyclone trying to establish itself, and the GFS in the last frame of the run, showing somewhat of a decrease beginning in shear in that time frame.
I want to see if the models remain consistent on this in further runs, and see what pans out with the wind shear forecast.
In any event, just a little “heads up” in case something does pop up next week.
I’ll be looking at this again sometime tomorrow, but won’t be able to update probably until the afternoon.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS