SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 22, 2015…10:45 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good morning everyone!

Another round of severe weather is forecast for today through Friday.  Thursday and Fridays outlooks will follow at the end of the day 1 synopsis.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF TEXAS…EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEAST TEXAS…

There is a SLIGHT risk ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…MUCH OF LOUISIANA…AND THE
MIDDLE-UPPER COASTAL PLAIN OF TEXAS…

There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…and over the MID ATLANTIC TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS (LINKED)
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

day1probotlk_1300_hail

Based on my analysis of information contained in the SPC outlook text, and graphic output from F5 DATA Severe Weather software using the NAM-WRF model, which once again is closest in resembling the areas projected in the SPC outlook maps, the following outlined area is at highest probability of the strongest severe weather.  Model output currently indicates the approximate time of occurrence to be AOA (At Or About) 4:00 P.M. CDT, lasting into the early evening hours.  This is based on various forecast soundings and indices regarding the development of severe weather.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY
f5nam.day1.4pmsevere

Based on analysis of combined severe weather parameters and indices regarding possible tornado activity, current data suggests the highest probability for tornadoes to occur lie within the following outline.  Parameters indicate that tornadoes could possibly be strong, with isolated long tracked tornadoes within the outline for portions of central Texas.  Based on a compilation of indices favorable for tornado activity, I have opted to extend the tornado prob within the yellow outline.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5nam.day1tor4pmcdt

Residents within the risk areas, ESPECIALLY within the ENHANCED area, should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and Local NWS Statements for up to date information.  Please check the following linked graphics often throughout the day for updates as well by clicking on them.

REMEMBER!…If a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your areaSEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (LINKED)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (LINKED)

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (LINKED)

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED)

Outlook-category-descriptions

The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current Day 2 Convective Outlook, and an ENHANCED risk in the current Day 3 Convective Outlook.

I will not be available tomorrow, however I should have a forecast for the Friday severe weather event.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0600

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0730

During the past 24 – 36 hours, analysis of the Global Models indicates a surface low to develop just near the coastal areas of the Gulf Coast states in about 5 – 7 days.  All of the Global Models have shown consistency in this solution, with the low eventually moving off the U.S. eastern seaboard around the SC / NC / VA area.  Right now, the GFS is the outlier, with the surface low developing over the south central plains region, then moving off the U.S. east coast.  I am more inclined at the moment to buy the ECMWF and CMC GEM solutions of a development further to the south, near the coastal area of the Gulf Coast States.  I am basing this at the moment on the current pressure departures of the 500 mb Mean Anomaly forecast.

In any event, it looks as if we may be in store for a coastal storm developing around the Tidewater area, with the low deepening and moving NNE parallel to the coastline with the center approx. 150nm offshore, and phase with a 500 mb low.  The current sea height projections were not available for this far out, however I will try to update on this sometime next week, around my work schedule.

The following forecast maps from the ECMWF and CMC show the CURRENT FORECAST 850 mb winds (ECMWF), and surface winds (CMC) over the area.  Based on the CURRENT model output from the ECMWF, GFS and CMC, the low may have the potential to strengthen to sub 980 mb strength.  I will be analyzing further model runs as time allows for consistency and any significant changes.  I do not expect anything tropical or sub-tropical from this system at the moment.  It should remain baroclinic.

ECMWF 00Z RUN 168 HOUR FORECAST
ECMWF 168
ECMWF 850 MB WIND FORECAST 216 HOURS
ECMWF 216 850 MB

CMC GGEM SURFACE FORECAST 216 HOURS
CMCGGEM216.SURFACE

NOAA/ESRL 500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE FORECAST 168 HOURS
z500nanom_f168_usbg

Please check out my Preliminary Seasonal Hurricane Outlook published on Apr. 16, 2015

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 22, 2015…10:45 A.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm! I have sent the warning about Friday to relatives near eastern Missouri border. They are just near the edge of the Enhanced circle. God bless you and your boys, and I hope we all have a safe 2015 from here on. This has been a tumultuous year so far.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Thanks for that “Heads-Up” about next weeks possible coastal storm, that could affect me.

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