ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED APR. 19, 2015…2:45 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good day everyone.  A little late, but better late than never.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OK…MUCH
AR…AND EAST TX…

There is a SLIGHT risk FROM OK/TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES…

There is a MARGINAL risk OVER MUCH OF THE
ARKLATEX…LOWER MS VALLEY…AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS….

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_torn

SPC DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_hail

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WITH VERY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND A FEW TORNADOES. SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAMAGING GUSTS…A FEW TORNADOES…AND ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE.

A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR/TX/LA.

Complex indeed.  Analysis of graphical output from F5 DATA software, utilizing the NAM-WRF model which closely resembles the SPC outlook risk areas, indicates the atmosphere should be very unstable over the enhanced risk area, and possibly over a portion of the slight risk area.  Indices of SBCAPE, MLCAPE, LIFTED INDEX, SWEAT INDEX all point toward scattered strong severe weather.  Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes are already occurring well toward the east of the enhanced risk area, and as of the time of my analysis, and writing of this synopsis, the following TORNADO WATCHES were in effect.

TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 78 AND NUMBER 79 (LINKED)
validww

This is a little earlier in initiation than shown in the model output, but I do expect this current threat to be valid until around 4:00 p.m. CDT.  The following outlined map indicates where the highest tornado probability should be experienced until that time:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF OUTPUT
f5nam.day1tor4pmcdt

Based on the forecast soundings output from the NAM-WRF, the approximate time we should begin to see activity in the enhanced risk area should be within the 4:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. CDT time frame.  There are multiple areas indicated by the output, which lie within the slight risk area.  The following map indicates the highest area probability for the strongest severe weather, within the yellow outlines:

F5 DATA NAM – WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT
f5nam.day1.4pmsevere

F5 DATA NAM – WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5nam.day1.7pmsevere

Based on various indices dealing with tornado activity, the following areas should be at greatest risk for tornadoes this afternoon and evening.  Some of these tornadoes, based on the EHI and STP parameters could be isolated, strong and long tracked tornadoes, mainly from AR, SWWD into TX, and over some portions of AL. within the severe weather time frame.

F5 DATA NAM – WRF TORNADO PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. – 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5nam.day1tor7pmcdt

Residents within the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements for any sudden changes.  Please use the following linked graphics by clicking on them, to receive current information regarding watches and / or warnings.  If a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (LINKED)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (LINKED)

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (LINKED)

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED)

The SPC has a Severe Weather Threat posted for the next 3 days, MON – WED.  Please click on the linked map below for further information.

SPC HOME PAGE
activity_loop

Outlook-category-descriptions

Please check out my Preliminary Seasonal Hurricane Outlook published on Apr. 16, 2015

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED APR. 19, 2015…2:45 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Today, Wed. we could have some afternoon T. Storms with small hail up here in the Northeast. Front coming through with a good “cold pool” of air at mid and higher levels which could support this hail threat.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I had a general rain during the day, Monday that left a total of 1.77″ in my rain gauge. Then, very early this morning, we had showers and T. Storms roll through , on and off for several hours, it started about 12:30am. I have to check the overnight amount. I’ll post it when I do. Have to go outside, it’s a good “old-fashioned” rain gauge. I don’t trust the digital model that I have. That one said 0.50″, so I’ll see how close the old – fashioned one is to it!.

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