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Good day everyone. A little late, but better late than never.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OK…MUCH
AR…AND EAST TX…
There is a SLIGHT risk FROM OK/TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST
There is a MARGINAL risk OVER MUCH OF THE
ARKLATEX…LOWER MS VALLEY…AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS….
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WITH VERY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND A FEW TORNADOES. SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAMAGING GUSTS…A FEW TORNADOES…AND ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE.
A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR/TX/LA.
Complex indeed. Analysis of graphical output from F5 DATA software, utilizing the NAM-WRF model which closely resembles the SPC outlook risk areas, indicates the atmosphere should be very unstable over the enhanced risk area, and possibly over a portion of the slight risk area. Indices of SBCAPE, MLCAPE, LIFTED INDEX, SWEAT INDEX all point toward scattered strong severe weather. Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes are already occurring well toward the east of the enhanced risk area, and as of the time of my analysis, and writing of this synopsis, the following TORNADO WATCHES were in effect.
This is a little earlier in initiation than shown in the model output, but I do expect this current threat to be valid until around 4:00 p.m. CDT. The following outlined map indicates where the highest tornado probability should be experienced until that time:
Based on the forecast soundings output from the NAM-WRF, the approximate time we should begin to see activity in the enhanced risk area should be within the 4:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. CDT time frame. There are multiple areas indicated by the output, which lie within the slight risk area. The following map indicates the highest area probability for the strongest severe weather, within the yellow outlines:
Based on various indices dealing with tornado activity, the following areas should be at greatest risk for tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Some of these tornadoes, based on the EHI and STP parameters could be isolated, strong and long tracked tornadoes, mainly from AR, SWWD into TX, and over some portions of AL. within the severe weather time frame.
Residents within the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements for any sudden changes. Please use the following linked graphics by clicking on them, to receive current information regarding watches and / or warnings. If a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The SPC has a Severe Weather Threat posted for the next 3 days, MON – WED. Please click on the linked map below for further information.
Please check out my Preliminary Seasonal Hurricane Outlook published on Apr. 16, 2015
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS