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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) NORMAN, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of the CENTRAL PLAINS TO S
There is a MARGINAL risk surrounding the SLIGHT risk AND EWD
ALONG GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO SWRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE…
Based on analysis of the current outlook, the main threat today appears to be damaging thunderstorm gusts and severe hail. Analysis of forecast sounding parameters does indicate the probability of an isolated tornado threat. Based on my analysis of graphical model output from F5 DATA software, the NAM-WRF model from the 12Z run appears to match closely with the SPC Convective Outlook map. Based on this, various indices from the forecast soundings indicate the highest probability for the occurrence of severe weather to lie within the following outline.
Both the NAM-WRF and RAP models tend to indicate a high probability this evening along the LA/MS Gulf coast area.
Based on analysis of the NAM-WRF, parameters seemed to indicate a tornado threat may be likely in portions of OK. Based on this, it led me to apply the following outline.
Residents within the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements for any sudden changes. Please use the following linked graphics by clicking on them, to receive current information regarding watches and / or warnings.
The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook ACROSS PARTS OF AR…NRN LA AND
There is a SLIGHT risk ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS…ARKLATEX…LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY…TN VALLEY AND GULF
There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS…ARKLATEX…LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY…TN VALLEY…GULF COAST
STATES AND CAROLINAS…
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.
The SPC has also designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…CAROLINAS AND SE GA…and a MARGINAL risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS…MID-ATLANTIC…CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES…in the Day 3 Outlook
Please check out my Preliminary Seasonal Hurricane Outlook published on Apr. 16, 2015
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS