SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 18, 2015…11:30 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) NORMAN, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of the CENTRAL PLAINS TO S
TX…

There is a MARGINAL risk surrounding the SLIGHT risk AND EWD
ALONG GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO SWRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Based on analysis of the current outlook, the main threat today appears to be damaging thunderstorm gusts and severe hail.  Analysis of forecast sounding parameters does indicate the probability of an isolated tornado threat.  Based on my analysis of graphical model output from F5 DATA software, the NAM-WRF model from the 12Z run appears to match closely with the SPC Convective Outlook map.  Based on this, various indices from the forecast soundings indicate the highest probability for the occurrence of severe weather to lie within the following outline.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE
f5nam.day1severe

Both the NAM-WRF and RAP models tend to indicate a high probability this evening along the LA/MS Gulf coast area.

Based on analysis of the NAM-WRF, parameters seemed to indicate a tornado threat may be likely in portions of OK.  Based on this, it led me to apply the following outline.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TOR PROB
f5nam.day1tor

Residents within the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements for any sudden changes.  Please use the following linked graphics by clicking on them, to receive current information regarding watches and / or warnings.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (LINKED)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (LINKED)

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (LINKED)

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED)

The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook ACROSS PARTS OF AR…NRN LA AND
WCNTRL MS…

There is a SLIGHT risk ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS…ARKLATEX…LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY…TN VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES…

There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS…ARKLATEX…LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY…TN VALLEY…GULF COAST
STATES AND CAROLINAS…

…SUMMARY…
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0600

The SPC has also designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…CAROLINAS AND SE GAand a MARGINAL risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS…MID-ATLANTIC…CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF COAST STATESin the Day 3 Outlook

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0730

Outlook-category-descriptions

Please check out my Preliminary Seasonal Hurricane Outlook published on Apr. 16, 2015

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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