SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 10, 2015…ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE 9:55 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display, No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect).  They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis.  In order to retrieve current graphics data, mouse over and click on the graphics from the SPC, Intellicast Doppler Radar animation, and the NWS Warnings and Hazard display.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST…

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO SWRN TX…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Based on information contained in the day 1 outlook, the main threats for today appear to be damaging thunderstorm winds and hail.  Based on my analysis of model output graphics from the RAP and NAM-WRF models in the F5 DATA Severe Weather software, storms today should not be of the intensity that we saw on Wed. and Thu.  Tornadic activity cannot be totally ruled out with some of the more intense storms, given the unidirectional wind field and deep layer shear.  It appears, based on model forecast soundings, the greatest probability for the strongest severe weather will lie within the Piedmont / Tidewater regions, with an isolated area over a portion of AL/MS.  The best probability will be within the Piedmont / Tidewater areas.  These areas are outlined in the following maps, with the red outline indicating where the best probability of isolated tornado activity could occur.  I am looking for the most active period to occur beginning approximately 3:00 p.m. into early evening hours.  Please remember to click on the linked graphics for up to date real time information.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE / TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5nam.best

f5nam.best2

I will be off for the weekend, so please visit the SPC site for information regarding the MARGINAL threats for this weekend.

The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook ACROSS WRN KS INTO FAR ERN CO…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0600

The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Storms ACROSS SERN KS…MO…AND FAR NRN OK…and ACROSS SRN TXin the Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0730

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (LINKED)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (LINKED)

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (LINKED)

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 10, 2015…ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE 9:55 A.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Hey Monty, did you have snow out in your area today?

  2. originallt says:

    Again, looks like the North, side of”The Lake”, North of New Orleans is being hit very hard. Hope dellamom is OK.

    • dellamom says:

      Dellamom is fine. I had to clear one of the parking lot drains at the office this morning so the cars didn’t flood, but once the leaves were gone, the water went right down. I believe Mac is in St. Tammany Parish as well and I hope he is faring well. We’re getting ready to grow gills down here with all the rain, but at least we’ve been spared what the Midwest got. I did see there was a tornado warning yesterday for Port Sulphur, but didn’t hear of any damage or an actual twister. Prayers for all in the path of bad weather today, and for Storm, for taking care of us all so well.

  3. originallt says:

    Looks like you, dellamom, had quite a strong line of storms move through your area, Monday morning about 10am!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Well that line of impressive showers in Pa. just fell apart as it marched eastward. By the time it got to me, Sw CT. I only got a few sprinkles. Finally nice outside today Partly sunny both today and Sunday, highs 59-64F. Big change from the last few days when we had highs 39-44F!

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. When it rains…it pours. Damn. Nothing to everything. What a crazy start to our season Senior Chief. Wonder if Hurricane season will do the same. Wasn’t that the case in 1969 featuring my friend Camille?

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