You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.
For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect). They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis. In order to retrieve current graphics data, mouse over and click on the graphics from the SPC, Intellicast Doppler Radar animation, and the NWS Warnings and Hazard display.
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 1 Outlook over portions of NRN OK…SRN/ERN
There is a SLIGHT risk ELSEWHERE FROM NW TX ACROSS MO
TO NRN KY AND CENTRAL OH…
There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING SLGT RISK FROM SW
TX TO PORTIONS WV AND WRN PA…
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Based on my analysis of the current outlook text, and careful analysis of forecast sounding parameters from a combination of the GFS and NAM-WRF graphics output from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, today’s severe threat could pose a limited severe outbreak. Based on forecast soundings this event has the POTENTIAL to become a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation). Analysis of the forecast sounding parameters indicate the strongest of the severe weather may initiate between or by 4:00 pm. CDT through 7:00 p.m. CDT, shifting eastward.
The forecast soundings reveal that severe storms could become very strong within the hatched area, and a very good possibility exists that some strong (EF2 – EF5), long tracked tornadoes may occur within the hatched tornado probability area. Based on the model output this morning, the greatest tornado threat currently lies within the outlined area, with the strongest probability of strong, long track tornadoes within the red outlined area.
Sounding indices indicated some very strong values this morning. You may research these values, however just for quick reference, these indicate a very unstable atmospheric setup:
CRAVEN – BROOKS SEVERE INDEX: 40, 000 – 100, 000
LIFTED INDEX: -8 to -10
SWEAT INDEX: 450 – 475
SBCAPE: 2500 – 4000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000 – 3000 j/kg
STP: 2 – 5
It would not surprise me if the SPC upgrades a portion of the area to a MODERATE risk later on today.
Residents in the risk areas, especially the enhanced risk area, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and warnings. Please review your tornado plan, and if a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
PLEASE…click on the linked graphics below often to get the latest updated information on WATCHES, MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS, and NWS STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES and WARNINGS.
The Day 2 Outlook is posted after the following graphics.
The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook for MUCH OF IL…FAR SRN WI…WRN INDIANA…AND PARTS OF ERN MO…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX…
…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA AND EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES AND SWWD TO TX…
Round 2 is set for Thursday, with the most significant severe weather forecast to occur within the above hatched area. Analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast soundings from the NAM-WRF model indicate the greatest possibility for tornadoes, some possibly strong and long track, to occur, will lie within the outlined area.
I will not be able to post tomorrow, since I work all day, so please use the above linked graphics to remain up to date.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS