ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 08, 2015…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect).  They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis.  In order to retrieve current graphics data, mouse over and click on the graphics from the SPC, Intellicast Doppler Radar animation, and the NWS Warnings and Hazard display.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 1 Outlook over portions of NRN OK…SRN/ERN
KS…MO…SWRN IL…

There is a SLIGHT risk ELSEWHERE FROM NW TX ACROSS MO
TO NRN KY AND CENTRAL OH…

There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING SLGT RISK FROM SW
TX TO PORTIONS WV AND WRN PA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day1otlk_1300

SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. 

SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. 

Based on my analysis of the current outlook text, and careful analysis of forecast sounding parameters from a combination of the GFS and NAM-WRF graphics output from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, today’s  severe threat could pose a limited severe outbreak.  Based on forecast soundings this event has the POTENTIAL to become a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation).  Analysis of the forecast sounding parameters indicate the strongest of the severe weather may initiate between or by 4:00 pm. CDT through 7:00 p.m. CDT, shifting eastward.

The forecast soundings reveal that severe storms could become very strong within the hatched area, and a very good possibility exists that some strong (EF2 – EF5), long tracked tornadoes may occur within the hatched tornado probability area.  Based on the model output this morning, the greatest tornado threat currently lies within the outlined area, with the strongest probability of strong, long track tornadoes within the red outlined area.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5nam.torbest

Sounding indices indicated some very strong values this morning.  You may research these values, however just for quick reference, these indicate a very unstable atmospheric setup:

CRAVEN – BROOKS SEVERE INDEX: 40, 000 – 100, 000
LIFTED INDEX: -8 to -10
SWEAT INDEX: 450 – 475
SBCAPE: 2500 – 4000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000 – 3000 j/kg
EHI: 3+
STP: 2 – 5

F5 DATA NAM-WRF DRYLINE FORECAST 4:00 P.M. CDT
f5nam.4pmdryline

F5 DATA NAM-WRF DRYLINE FORECAST 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5nam.7pmdryline

It would not surprise me if the SPC upgrades a portion of the area to a MODERATE risk later on today.

Residents in the risk areas, especially the enhanced risk area, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and warnings.  Please review your tornado plan, and if a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

PLEASE…click on the linked graphics below often to get the latest updated information on WATCHES, MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS, and NWS STATEMENTS, ADVISORIES and WARNINGS. 

The Day 2 Outlook is posted after the following graphics.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (LINKED)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (LINKED)

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (LINKED)

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED)

The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook for MUCH OF IL…FAR SRN WI…WRN INDIANA…AND PARTS OF ERN MO…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA AND EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES AND SWWD TO TX…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0600

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_0600_any

Round 2 is set for Thursday, with the most significant severe weather forecast to occur within the above hatched area.  Analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast soundings from the NAM-WRF model indicate the greatest possibility for tornadoes, some possibly strong and long track, to occur, will lie within the outlined area.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5nam.torbestthurs

I will not be able to post tomorrow, since I work all day, so please use the above linked graphics to remain up to date.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 08, 2015…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. BOOM!!! Here we go. Need this to slide West for some chasing. Pleas God keep everyone safe with that being said. Sorry to hear Dellamom hope all goes well. Prayers are with you. Hope all is well LT…have missed talking but have been quite busy.

    Looking forward to 2015 Hurricane season with you Senior Chief!!

  2. Mac says:

    Hope everyone had a great time on Easter Sunday! I know my grandkids did!!! I just read your post Storm, and man am I glad that, because of illness that his wife has, my trip up to my brother’s house in Minnesota had to be postponed until later in the month. I would have been staying in Rockford, IL tonight, which is on the northern end of the enhanced risk area for tomorrow. Dellamom, I echo lt and Storm in wishing you good luck!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Hope things are OK with you , dellamom, whatever that trial is for.

    • dellamom says:

      I work for a law firm. It is not a personal trial for me. However, my personal issue is that my mother, who lived with me for 8 years following Katrina, is in a nursing home on the Southshore and they have recently called in hospice. With her particular set of circumstances, we could lose her shortly or it could be months. My sister is doing the lion’s share of visiting and trying to get her to eat. I have the best sister on the planet and feel truly blessed in that regard. Thank you all for your thoughts.

  4. dellamom says:

    Greetings, Storm. I hope all is well with you. I’ve been out of pocket for a bit in trial prep and dealing with other issues. Thank you for the extensive forecast, and prayers to all in the path. I hope all on the site are well and hope to be able to keep up with it again now, although more trial prep looms large.

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