SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR APR. 06, 2015 THROUGH APR. 09, 2015…PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS…ISSUED APR. 05 2015…7:20 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect).  They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis.  In order to retrieve current graphics data, mouse over and click on the graphics from the SPC, Intellicast Doppler Radar animation, and the NWS Warnings and Hazard display.

The SPC has designated Severe Weather risks all week, from Monday through Thursday.  I will not be able to update Mon / Tue. as I work.  Depending on how my schedule is, I may be here Wed. or Thu. to do a morning update.

This discussion is PRELIMINARY, and the Day 2 Outlook (Mon) and modeling is still showing a discrepancy as far as exact location and timing of the severe threat.  Given that the severe episode goes through most of the week, there is too much analyze as far as forecast sounding parameters through the F5 DATA software, which will most likely have changes over the next few computer model runs, so I believe it wiser to handle each situation separately as the Day1 Outlook for each perspective day.

Currently, in the Day 2 and Day 3 Outlooks, I am not looking for tornado activity per se, as the main threat appears at the moment to be possible large hail and damaging gusts, albeit the possibility always exists for an isolated tornado with any stronger rotating cells near the dryline.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day2otlk_1730

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day3otlk_0730

Of one concern to me as a forecaster…the outlook for Wed. currently points to a possible threat for a few strong, long tracked tornadoes for a portion of Kansas, and northern Oklahoma, with a possible shift toward the east on Thu.  This premise is currently based on forecast sounding data of the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) and 0-3 km EHI (Energy Helicity Index).  The following are the current Day 4 and Day 5 Severe Weather Outlooks, along with the outlined STP and EHI parameters where the greatest tornado threat could be established.  An STP of 1 or greater indicates the potential for significant tornadoes (EF2 – EF5) increases dramatically.  An EHI of 3.0 – 3.9 indicates a few strong / long tracked tornadoes could occur.  Again, this is a PRELIMINARY analysis and could likely change prior to each day becoming the Day 1 Outlook.

CURRENT DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day4prob

CURRENT DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day5prob

CURRENT NAM MODEL STP FOR WED EARLY EVE APR 08, 2015
CENTRAL_NAM212_ATMOS_STP_84HR

CURRENT NAM EHI FOR WED EARLY EVE APR. 08 2015
NAMEHI00Z

Since I am unsure of my work schedule this week, please make sure you click on the following linked graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (LINKED)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (LINKED)

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (LINKED)

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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