You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.
For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect). They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis, but are fine when I am on the edit page. I have been trying to correct this, but no luck thus far. This means, you actually have to click on the graphic to view the updated graphic and information. If ANYONE has an idea how to correct this, I would appreciate it.
Greetings everyone…and HAPPY EASTER!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. has designated several Severe Weather risks for the upcoming week. This synopsis is a preliminary synopsis based on the current early morning runs of the GFS and NAM-WRF models. At current, the NAM-WRF doesn’t go far out enough in time for the Day 5 and Day 6 Severe Weather Probability Outlooks. However, both models do go out to the Day 3 Outlook. Upon analysis of the graphics output from both the GFS and NAM – WRF from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, as well as the SPC SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) model, there is currently some discrepancy between the modeling and current Day 3 Outlook map, in that modeling indicates severe weather, or the best probability for severe weather to lie further to the west over OK and TX. I have no idea at the moment why this discrepancy is present. However, I am certain that when the models update, and the SPC updates the outlook, things should appear clearer. I will try to update tomorrow, however in the event I am not able to, please visit the SPC site for Monday’s severe weather threat.
The following are the preliminary outlook maps for days 5 and 6 (Wed. – Thu). Based on preliminary forecast sounding data, and information contained in the outlooks, the probability for severe weather increases from Monday’s outlook, and appears to be a little more significant on Day 6 (Thu.). Hail and tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out, with the greater probability, based on the preliminary forecast soundings, to occur on Thu. Again, this will most likely be updated numerous times by SPC as we get closer to the target dates.
Based on the preliminary forecast sounding data from the GFS model, F5 DATA output, the best probability of the strongest severe storms, and tornado probabilities are outline in the following maps:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS