PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…APR. 04, 2015…ISSUED 12:30 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect).  They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis, but are fine when I am on the edit page.  I have been trying to correct this, but no luck thus far.  This means, you actually have to click on the graphic to view the updated graphic and information.  If ANYONE has an idea how to correct this, I would appreciate it.

Greetings everyone…and HAPPY EASTER!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. has designated several Severe Weather risks for the upcoming week.  This synopsis is a preliminary synopsis based on the current early morning runs of the GFS and NAM-WRF models.  At current, the NAM-WRF doesn’t go far out enough in time for the Day 5 and Day 6 Severe Weather Probability Outlooks.  However, both models do go out to the Day 3 Outlook.  Upon analysis of the graphics output from both the GFS and NAM – WRF from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, as well as the SPC SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) model, there is currently some discrepancy between the modeling and current Day 3 Outlook map, in that modeling indicates severe weather, or the best probability for severe weather to lie further to the west over OK and TX.   I have no idea at the moment why this discrepancy is present.  However, I am certain that when the models update, and the SPC updates the outlook, things should appear clearer.  I will try to update tomorrow, however in the event I am not able to, please visit the SPC site for Monday’s severe weather threat.

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP
day3otlk_0730

SPC SREF MODEL CRAVEN BROOKS SIG SEVERE (MEDIAN)
SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f060

The following are the preliminary outlook maps for days 5 and 6 (Wed. – Thu).  Based on preliminary forecast sounding data, and information contained in the outlooks, the probability for severe weather increases from Monday’s outlook, and appears to be a little more significant on Day 6 (Thu.).  Hail and tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out, with the greater probability, based on the preliminary forecast soundings, to occur on Thu.  Again, this will most likely be updated numerous times by SPC as we get closer to the target dates.

SPC DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
day5prob

SPC DAY 6 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
day6prob

Based on the preliminary forecast sounding data from the GFS model, F5 DATA output, the best probability of the strongest severe storms, and tornado probabilities are outline in the following maps:

F5 DATA GFS DAY 5 SEVERE
f5gfs day5.best

F5 DATA GFS TORNADO PROB.
f5gfstor.day5.best

F5 DATA GFS DAY 6 SEVERE
f5gfs day6.best

F5 DATA GFS DAY 6 TORNADO PROB.
f5gfstor.day6.best

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

NWS SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS (COURTESY OF WEATHERBUG)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s