SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 03, 2015…8:20 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect).  They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis, but are fine when I am on the edit page.  I have been trying to correct this, but no luck thus far.  This means, you actually have to click on the graphic to view the updated graphic and information.  If ANYONE has an idea how to correct this, I would appreciate it.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated the following risk areas in today’s Day1 Convective Outlook:

…THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND NRN MS NEWD INTO ERN KY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD AREA FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day1otlk_1630

Based on analysis of information provided in the outlook this morning, the main threat is focused on DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS and POSSIBLE DAMAGING HAIL.

Analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast sounding data from the NAM-WRF model tends to support this, however a possibility for some tornadoes does exists, based on 2 different tornado parameters.  As noted in the SPC outlook, this threat may not be optimal in the lower MS Valley region due to weaker SRH (Storm Relative Helicity).  Based on the current model output, the best probability area for the strongest severe storms, and tornado probability are outlined in the following maps.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE
f5nam.best

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO BEST PROBABILITY
f5nam.torbest

Residents in the risk areas, especially the ENHANCED area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and NWS Statements and warnings.  IF A TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

Once again, please click on the graphics below often, as there is a glitch in the displays updating on this page.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

NWS SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS (COURTESY OF WEATHERBUG)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 03, 2015…8:20 A.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Our Good Friday forecast up here was for Showers, some heavy with up to 1-1.5″ total rain fall, well, it really busted for the entire NYC Metro area, we received only 0.10″, and that’s a common amount around our area. Highest I could find was 0.25″. Now clearing, very windy and cooler up here. 45-50F today, NW winds, 15-25mph., WHG. Have a Happy Easter, Storm and all!

  2. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm, and have a wonderful Easter Weekend.

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