SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 03, 2015…8:20 A.M. EDT

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For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect).  They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis, but are fine when I am on the edit page.  I have been trying to correct this, but no luck thus far.  This means, you actually have to click on the graphic to view the updated graphic and information.  If ANYONE has an idea how to correct this, I would appreciate it.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated the following risk areas in today’s Day1 Convective Outlook:

…THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND NRN MS NEWD INTO ERN KY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD AREA FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)

Based on analysis of information provided in the outlook this morning, the main threat is focused on DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS and POSSIBLE DAMAGING HAIL.

Analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast sounding data from the NAM-WRF model tends to support this, however a possibility for some tornadoes does exists, based on 2 different tornado parameters.  As noted in the SPC outlook, this threat may not be optimal in the lower MS Valley region due to weaker SRH (Storm Relative Helicity).  Based on the current model output, the best probability area for the strongest severe storms, and tornado probability are outlined in the following maps.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO BEST PROBABILITY

Residents in the risk areas, especially the ENHANCED area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and NWS Statements and warnings.  IF A TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

Once again, please click on the graphics below often, as there is a glitch in the displays updating on this page.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

NWS SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS (COURTESY OF WEATHERBUG)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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