You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.
For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect). They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis, but are fine when I am on the edit page. I have been trying to correct this, but no luck thus far. This means, you actually have to click on the graphic to view the updated graphic and information. If ANYONE has an idea how to correct this, I would appreciate it.
The Storm Prediction Center has designated the following risk areas in today’s Day 1 Convective Outlook:
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHERN MN…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN MO…
…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…
…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION…
…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GA/FL…
SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY
Information contained in the outlook, and analysis of forecast soundings tend to indicate the main threat regarding severe thunderstorms should be large hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts/straight line winds. Based on output from the NAM-WRF model in the F5 DATA Severe Weather software, instability should be greater than shear, indicating multi cell to linear or squall line type activity. This appears to hold true for the MN to KS area in that storms may congeal into a linear MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) later this eve, while further south / southeast could see more of a multiple MCS setup.
The current output form the NAM-WRF indicates the bulk of activity may initiate near 4:00 p.m. CDT and remain active through 7:00 p.m. CDT or later. Activity should diminish in the late evening hours. Albeit the SPC Tornado prob. map indicates a 2% chance of tornadic activity, the current SPC SREF forecast map indicates the risk may be further west, as denoted by the STP map, showing the percentage of a STP (Significant Tornado Parameter >1. An STP of 1 or greater indicates a fair increase of experiencing a tornado.
SPC STP FORECAST MAP
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and Warnings this afternoon into late evening.
Boss changed my work schedule this week, so I will not be here tomorrow…but here is a heads up:
The SPC has designated SLIGHT risk areas for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 and Day 3 Convective Outlooks. The following graphics are from my flash drive, but are linked to the SPC site. These will change, so please visit them for tomorrow. I will try to have an update for Friday’s outlook.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS