SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 01, 2015…2:30 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

For some unforeseen reason, the graphics from the SPC, and Intellicast Doppler radar do not display properly in regards to current up to date graphics from these sites (i.e. SPC Convective Outlook, SPC Watches and Mesoscale Discussions display No Current Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions in effect).  They revert to older graphics once I publish the synopsis, but are fine when I am on the edit page.  I have been trying to correct this, but no luck thus far.  This means, you actually have to click on the graphic to view the updated graphic and information.  If ANYONE has an idea how to correct this, I would appreciate it.

The Storm Prediction Center has designated the following risk areas in today’s Day 1 Convective Outlook:

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHERN MN…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN MO…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GA/FL…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY

Information contained in the outlook, and analysis of forecast soundings tend to indicate the main threat regarding severe thunderstorms should be large hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts/straight line winds.  Based on output from the NAM-WRF model in the F5 DATA Severe Weather software, instability should be greater than shear, indicating multi cell to linear or squall line type activity.  This appears to hold true for the MN to KS area in that storms may congeal into a linear MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) later this eve, while further south / southeast could see more of a multiple MCS setup.

The current output form the NAM-WRF indicates the bulk of activity may initiate near 4:00 p.m. CDT and remain active through 7:00 p.m. CDT or later.  Activity should diminish in the late evening hours.  Albeit the SPC Tornado prob. map indicates a 2% chance of tornadic activity, the current SPC SREF forecast map indicates the risk may be further west, as denoted by the STP map, showing the percentage of a STP (Significant Tornado Parameter >1.  An STP of 1 or greater indicates a fair increase of experiencing a tornado.

F5 DATA BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY
f5nam.best

SPC STP FORECAST MAP

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and Warnings this afternoon into late evening.

Boss changed my work schedule this week, so I will not be here tomorrow…but here is a heads up:

The SPC has designated SLIGHT risk areas for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 and Day 3 Convective Outlooks.  The following graphics are from my flash drive, but are linked to the SPC site.  These will change, so please visit them for tomorrow.  I will try to have an update for Friday’s outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_1730

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0730

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 01, 2015…2:30 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Picked up my friend at JFK on Wed. night, and yes, they did experience some pretty bad turbulence while flying “between the T. Storms” over Nebraska last night. Thankfully, it only lasted about 20 mins. or so. One of the stewardesses was “knocked down” or fell down during that bad stretch, but was not hurt.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I have a friend and his wife flying back to JFK from LAX. right now. I am tracking them on A flight Tracking site,(FlightAware) it was cool to see the plane change course, on the flight tracking map, to avoid, go around a line to T. Storms in Nebraska . The pilot apparently by using RADAR navigated through an area in the line that was not too bad. I’m picking him up later tonight, I’ll ask him if he had any turbulence there.

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