SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 26, 2015…1:30 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good day everyone!

I trust my previous forecast was helpful in yesterdays severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated 3 MARGINAL risk areas in the Day 1 Convective Outlook over parts of  EASTERN NC/MID-ATLANTIC… …THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EAST/CENTRAL PA TO NORTHERN MD/VA… …THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF LA/MS/AL…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Analysis of information contained in the current outlook does indicate a brief, weak tornado could occur in the risk area over the Chesapeake area.  However, current NWS Doppler Radar indicates most of the thunderstorm activity is located offshore, and moving off to the ENE.  Analysis of current model output of forecast soundings tends to indicate severe activity and threat may be diminishing, and should clear this area by early this evening.   Main threat appears to be damaging thunderstorm gusts, however given the premise of deep shear and updrafts, the possibility of a brief, weak tornado is not ruled out.  Forecast soundings indicate the severe threat should be limited to the risk areas today.

The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA…

…SUMMARY… ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0600

Based on analysis  of the outlook, and current forecast soundings from F5 DATA software, the SWEAT index (Severe WEAther Threat) values are confined more toward the north and closer to offshore of the FL. Peninsula.  However, the F5 DATA software concurs with the outlook in that SBCAPE values will be within the 1000 – 1500 j/kg range, with decent Surface Theta-E values and deep layer shear. This could provide the POTENTIAL for rotating updrafts, which could provide a slim probability of a brief, weak tornado or two.  As of the current, this probability is pretty low, and the main threat appears to be, once again, damaging thunderstorm gusts in the strongest storms.  Current forecast BRN (Bulk Richardson Shear) values tend to indicate more of a squall line / multi cell setup as opposed to organized supercells.  Again, these conditions could change, however this is the current output based on the model analysis.

The forecast soundings output indicates any severe threat should occur within the marginal risk area, with the most likely probability within the circled area:

F5 DATA GFS SEVERE BEST PROBABILITY
f5.friday.severe.best

Residents within the risk area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS office statements and/or warnings.

I am working on trying to find a solution to the problem of the graphics not updating automatically as far as Watches and Mesoscale Discussions, and displayed Doppler Radar.  In the meanwhile, PLEASE click on the graphics you’re interested in to retrieve up to date information regarding these features.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    


		
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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 26, 2015…1:30 P.M. EDT

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…what a day yesterday. Any EF rating on the Tulsa Tornado?

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