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Good day everyone!
I trust my previous forecast was helpful in yesterdays severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated 3 MARGINAL risk areas in the Day 1 Convective Outlook over parts of EASTERN NC/MID-ATLANTIC… …THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EAST/CENTRAL PA TO NORTHERN MD/VA… …THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF LA/MS/AL…
Analysis of information contained in the current outlook does indicate a brief, weak tornado could occur in the risk area over the Chesapeake area. However, current NWS Doppler Radar indicates most of the thunderstorm activity is located offshore, and moving off to the ENE. Analysis of current model output of forecast soundings tends to indicate severe activity and threat may be diminishing, and should clear this area by early this evening. Main threat appears to be damaging thunderstorm gusts, however given the premise of deep shear and updrafts, the possibility of a brief, weak tornado is not ruled out. Forecast soundings indicate the severe threat should be limited to the risk areas today.
The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA…
…SUMMARY… ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY
Based on analysis of the outlook, and current forecast soundings from F5 DATA software, the SWEAT index (Severe WEAther Threat) values are confined more toward the north and closer to offshore of the FL. Peninsula. However, the F5 DATA software concurs with the outlook in that SBCAPE values will be within the 1000 – 1500 j/kg range, with decent Surface Theta-E values and deep layer shear. This could provide the POTENTIAL for rotating updrafts, which could provide a slim probability of a brief, weak tornado or two. As of the current, this probability is pretty low, and the main threat appears to be, once again, damaging thunderstorm gusts in the strongest storms. Current forecast BRN (Bulk Richardson Shear) values tend to indicate more of a squall line / multi cell setup as opposed to organized supercells. Again, these conditions could change, however this is the current output based on the model analysis.
The forecast soundings output indicates any severe threat should occur within the marginal risk area, with the most likely probability within the circled area:
Residents within the risk area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS office statements and/or warnings.
I am working on trying to find a solution to the problem of the graphics not updating automatically as far as Watches and Mesoscale Discussions, and displayed Doppler Radar. In the meanwhile, PLEASE click on the graphics you’re interested in to retrieve up to date information regarding these features.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS