You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.
Good evening everyone!
I needed to get this out tonight, as will not be here tomorrow. PLEASE, for updated information regarding the CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP, click the link for the Storm Prediction Center, and go to the DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. The Outlook Map posted this evening is the current DAY 2 Status, to inform you what may be in store for tomorrow based on current forecast sounding information I am going to post some of the certain forecast indices and parameters I have analyzed, as well as some links explaining these indices, so you may compare them against my forecast, as well as coming to your own conclusion of what COULD happen tomorrow. PLEASE BE SURE TO READ THE OUTLOOK FIRST, BY CLICKING ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK MAP.
The Storm Prediction Center has designated an ENHANCED risk area ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NORTH TX…OK AND FAR NW AR…
There is a SLIGHT risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS…OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY…
There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS…OZARKS…MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY…in the current Day 2 Convective Outlook:
Based on analysis of the current day 2 outlook, and forecast sounding indices and parameters from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, graphical output from the NAM-WRF was utilized, as the SPC has outlined the areas in their outlook based on the NAM model output. Again, my synopsis is preliminary, as conditions could change in the early morning soundings. It is to note, that SPC mentions severe storms within the ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas could be undercut by the associated cold front, which would lessen any tornado risk…HOWEVER, IF this does not occur, there could be the probability of some limited, isolated strong tornado activity, based on noted forecast indices. Some of these indices include, but not limited to the following:
SBCAPE: 3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000-2500 j/kg
Lifted Index: -8 to -12
STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) 2 – 5
EHI (Energy Helicity Index) 3 – 5
Based on analysis of the F5 DATA software output from the NAM model, the most likely area for significant severe weather should lie within the following outline:
Based on analysis of data from he NAM-WRF, the best probability for tornado activity, some possibly strong, should lie within the following outline:
PLEASE NOTE…these outlines do not indicate that severe weather or tornadoes cannot happen within the other two risk areas, but do indicate at the moment, where the strongest possibilities lie based on the most current information.
The following F5 DATA graphics from the NAM-WRF are the actual indices analyzed this evening. The links that follow these graphics, will explain some of the values, and what type of severe weather could occur.
SEVERE WEATHER INDICES LINKS
The following are linked for up to date data. The updates may not appear or update on this page, so please click on them to see if any Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions have been issued, and check the DOPPLER RADAR and NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY for current warned areas.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS