URGENT SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…REQUEST WIDE DISSEMINATION…ISSUED MAR. 24, 2015…8:55 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good evening everyone!

I needed to get this out tonight, as  will not be here tomorrow.  PLEASE, for updated information regarding the CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP, click the link for the Storm Prediction Center, and go to the DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.  The Outlook Map posted this evening is the current DAY 2 Status, to inform  you what may be in store for tomorrow based on current forecast sounding information  I am going to post some of the certain forecast indices and parameters I have analyzed, as well as some links explaining these indices, so you may compare them against my forecast, as well as coming to your own conclusion of what COULD happen tomorrow.  PLEASE BE SURE TO READ THE OUTLOOK FIRST, BY CLICKING ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK MAP. 

The Storm Prediction Center has designated an ENHANCED risk area ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NORTH TX…OK AND FAR NW AR…

There is a SLIGHT risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS…OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY…

There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS…OZARKS…MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY…in the current Day 2 Convective Outlook:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP:

day2probotlk_1730_PROBHatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Based on analysis of the current day 2 outlook, and forecast sounding indices and parameters from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, graphical output from the NAM-WRF was utilized, as the SPC has outlined the areas in their outlook based on the NAM model output.  Again, my synopsis is preliminary, as conditions could change in the early morning soundings.  It is to note, that SPC mentions severe storms within the ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas could be undercut by the associated cold front, which would lessen any tornado risk…HOWEVER, IF this does not occur, there could be the probability of some limited, isolated strong tornado activity, based on noted forecast indices.  Some of these indices include, but not limited to the following:

SBCAPE: 3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000-2500 j/kg
Lifted Index: -8 to -12
STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) 2 – 5
EHI (Energy Helicity Index) 3 – 5

Based on analysis of the F5 DATA software output from the NAM model, the most likely area for significant severe weather should lie within the following outline:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY
f5.wednesday.severe.best

Based on analysis of data from he NAM-WRF, the best probability for tornado activity, some possibly strong, should lie within the following outline:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5.wednesday.tor.best

PLEASE NOTE…these outlines do not indicate that severe weather or tornadoes cannot happen within the other two risk areas, but do indicate at the moment, where the strongest possibilities lie based on the most current information.

The following F5 DATA graphics from the NAM-WRF are the actual indices analyzed this evening.  The links that follow these graphics, will explain some of the values, and what type of severe weather could occur.

F5 DATA NAM SBCAPE VALUES
f5.namwednesday.cape

F5 DATA NAM LIFTED INDEX VALUES
f5.namwednesday.li

F5 DATA NAM EHI VALUES
f5.namwednesday.ehi

F5 DATA NAM SHOWALTER VALUES
f5.namwednesday.showalter

F5 DATA NAM STP (SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER)
f5.namwednesday.stp

F5 DATA NAM SWEAT INDEX
f5.namwednesday.sweat

SEVERE WEATHER INDICES LINKS
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/help/sfcoa.html

http://tornadochaser.net/cape.html

http://www.teachingboxes.org/avc/content/Severe_Weather_Indices.htm

The following are linked for up to date data.  The updates may not appear or update on this page, so please click on them to see if any Watches, or Mesoscale Discussions have been issued, and check the DOPPLER RADAR and NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY for current warned areas.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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