ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites. Good day everyone! Well, looks like someone turned on the severe weather threat switch.  A lot to post on today.  I wanted to give sort of a “heads up”, given I work all day Mon – Wed. and will not be able to update anything.  The SPC has indicated Severe Weather Risks for today, through Wed.  Bear in mind, in this lengthy synopsis, the forecast soundings presented are from today’s early morning runs, and are somewhat of a blend between the GFS and NAM -WRF models, which will most likely change over the next few days as far as the areas depicted in the graphics…this is why I have to graphics from the SPC, Intellicast NWS Doppler Radar, and the NWS Hazards display linked to their perspective sites.  PLEASE click the graphics to check for new data, as for some reason the graphics are not updating with the new format the site has taken on.  I recommend over the course of this week, to use these to your advantage for up to date information, as well as the linked SPC Outlooks, which will direct you to the appropriate SPC page for up to date area coverage. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES… SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK day1otlk_1300 Current information contained in the Outlook, suggests the main concern primarily to be damaging winds.  However, based on one section which indicates further destabilization could occur by late this afternoon, along with my analysis of forecast sounding parameters from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, a weak tornado risk could materialize, with the possibility of an isolated tornado occurring within the circled area, late this afternoon into early evening. F5 DATA TORNADO PROBABILITY Severe weather will most likely occur within the SPC Outlook risk area, with analyzed forecast sounding parameters indicating the best probability within the circled area. F5 DATA SEVERE PROBABILITY As always, in ALL risk areas that will be posted, residents are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and Local NWS statements and warnings (These are provided in the linked NWS Hazards map). The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM NWRN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS… and OVER NRN FL…in the Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DAY2otlk_0600 Upon analysis of information in the Outlook, and F5 DATA forecast soundings, the best severe weather probability for the Plains area will exists within the outlook outline, with severe weather for FL mainly north of the Tampa Bay area.  Currently, based on the outlook, and analysis of the software, not looking for any tornadic activity over the Florida Peninsula, however keep yourself updated in case any forecasts change.  The main threat for Florida at the moment, will be damaging thunderstorm gusts, with the possibility of large hail closer to late afternoon and evening.  The most likely region for possible tornadic activity associated with rotating supercells is outlined in the following map.  The thunderstorm activity associated will be developing near the dryline.  Early on, the dryline will “cap” any strong activity, but, if daytime heating can overcome the cap, allowing the cap to break, some of the cells could produce tornadic activity, albeit most likely isolated. F5 DATA DAY 2 TORNADO POSSIBILITY For day 3 in the forecast period, we have an increase in the threat status.  The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS MUCH OF MO INTO NWRN AR AND ERN OK… There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM SERN OK INTO EXTREME SERN IA/WRN IL… SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK day3otlk_0730 Based on information in the Outlook, the area will be under the affect of, and lie within the left exit region of a 500mb jetstreak maxim.  In layman’s terms, this area will be under an excellent diffluent flow aloft, with maximum lift capability.  In addition, a strong shear environment will exist.  This is reflected by helicity values shown from the F5 DATA forecast soundings, along with stronger SWEAT Values, EHI values, Lifted Indices, and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values showing up for the first time.  Again, being this is the 3 DAY OUTLOOK, please check the various SPC products in my absence.  As of analysis, the most likely area for severe weather to occur lies within the following outline: F5 DATA DAY 3 SEVERE PROBABILITY Areas which could see some tornadic activity out of this, based on forecast severe weather parameters output, currently lie within the following outline: F5 DATA TORNADO POSSIBILITY Last but not least, the SPC has indicated a probability of severe weather occurring within the DAY 4 Severe Weather Outlook outline. SPC DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY OUTLOOK day4prob Based on my analysis of CURRENT information from this mornings forecast soundings from the F5 DATA software, with a blend of the GFS and NAM – WRF Graphical output, it appears the SWEAT (Severe Weather Threat) values are a little stronger, ranging from around 300 – 450.  This value indicates that supercells are favorable over the area, with 401 – 600 indicating more of a likelihood of isolated tornadoes being a little more numerous.  Other indices as of analysis point toward a probability of hail, and rotating supercells.  Based on analyzed indices, the following outlines indicate the most likely areas to experience severe thunderstorm activity, and possible tornado activity.  Once again, PLEASE CHECK THE SPC OUTLOOK for that day. F5 DAY 4 SEVERE PROBABILITY F5 DATA DAY 4 TORNADO POSSIBILITY SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY Barring anything unforeseen, I should have another synopsis sometime on Thursday Have a blessed day! T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret) METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    


About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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  1. greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm for the update.Looks like hurricane season is right around the corner.

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