MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR SATURDAY…SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY FOR TUESDAY MAR 24, 2015…ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…MAR. 20, 2015

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good day everyone!

First, let me explain about F5 DATA Severe Weather Software…this software does not make predictions on it’s own.  What this does is produce a graphic interpretation from information taken and downloaded from the Global Models, and the local NAM-WRF and RAP models.  This allows me to determine where the most likely probability of severe weather may occur, along with the probability of where tornadic activity COULD occur.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX in the Day 2 Convective Outlook:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK day2otlk_0600

Based on analysis of the information contained within the current Day 2 Outlook, gusty severe thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail appear to be the main concern at this time.  This is also supported by forecast sounding data derived from F5 DATA Severe Weather software graphical output from both the GFS and NAM-WRF models.  A note of interest however…the output currently suggests the marginal risk could extend a little further to the west than projected in the outlook map, as shown in the following F5 DATA maps within the circled areas.  However, bear in mind, this could change between now and tomorrow afternoon/evening.  I have noted in the last couple of severe weather forecasts, the SPC outlook map coverage changed at least 3 times during the course of the day.  Since I will not be around tomorrow, I recommend clicking on the above linked graphic for access to the SPC outlooks, as well as the graphics below.  This will provide you with the latest up to date information in my absence.

F5 DATA GFS / NAM – WRF WESTWARD EXTENSION
f5.gfssevere.7pm

f5.day2namsevere.7pm

The SPC has also designated a 15% probability of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook:

SPC DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MAP day5prob

Based on my analysis of forecasts sounding data provided by F5 DATA Software, should parameters remain the same throughout the forecast period, we could see a little more significance to the severe weather for Tuesday. 

Based on the current forecast information, we could see s slightly better chance at supercells, isolated tornado activity, and probable increase for hail. 

CURRENTLY, the only model going out to late enough Tuesday is the GFS. 

The information obtained suggests the severe threat extends further south, showing the most likely probability of severe thunderstorms occurring within the circled area.

Based on some severe weather indices values, a possibility of isolated tornado activity could occur within the circled/red hatched area.  I know this doesn’t coincide with the SPC outlook map at the moment, and I will try to have an update sometime on Sunday to see if the model output changes, to which I should also have the NAM – WRF output. 

IF for some reason I am unable to update, please refer to the SPC website, and the linked graphics on this page.

F5 DATA GFS SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTPUT f5.GFS.TUES

f5.gfstues.torn

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

CURRENT NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP

“StormW’s Toolbox” has a plethora of various weather websites.  

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR SATURDAY…SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY FOR TUESDAY MAR 24, 2015…ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…MAR. 20, 2015

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for your updates Storm….It has really been rainy here in SE TX for a while. It just won’t stop long enough to dry up. I wonder if that has any effect on Hurricanes. As in, where they may go if they get in GOM.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like things are starting to ramp up. Any thoughts on upcoming Hurricane Season?

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