You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.
Good day everyone!
First, let me explain about F5 DATA Severe Weather Software…this software does not make predictions on it’s own. What this does is produce a graphic interpretation from information taken and downloaded from the Global Models, and the local NAM-WRF and RAP models. This allows me to determine where the most likely probability of severe weather may occur, along with the probability of where tornadic activity COULD occur.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX in the Day 2 Convective Outlook:
Based on analysis of the information contained within the current Day 2 Outlook, gusty severe thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail appear to be the main concern at this time. This is also supported by forecast sounding data derived from F5 DATA Severe Weather software graphical output from both the GFS and NAM-WRF models. A note of interest however…the output currently suggests the marginal risk could extend a little further to the west than projected in the outlook map, as shown in the following F5 DATA maps within the circled areas. However, bear in mind, this could change between now and tomorrow afternoon/evening. I have noted in the last couple of severe weather forecasts, the SPC outlook map coverage changed at least 3 times during the course of the day. Since I will not be around tomorrow, I recommend clicking on the above linked graphic for access to the SPC outlooks, as well as the graphics below. This will provide you with the latest up to date information in my absence.
The SPC has also designated a 15% probability of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook:
Based on my analysis of forecasts sounding data provided by F5 DATA Software, should parameters remain the same throughout the forecast period, we could see a little more significance to the severe weather for Tuesday.
Based on the current forecast information, we could see s slightly better chance at supercells, isolated tornado activity, and probable increase for hail.
CURRENTLY, the only model going out to late enough Tuesday is the GFS.
The information obtained suggests the severe threat extends further south, showing the most likely probability of severe thunderstorms occurring within the circled area.
Based on some severe weather indices values, a possibility of isolated tornado activity could occur within the circled/red hatched area. I know this doesn’t coincide with the SPC outlook map at the moment, and I will try to have an update sometime on Sunday to see if the model output changes, to which I should also have the NAM – WRF output.
IF for some reason I am unable to update, please refer to the SPC website, and the linked graphics on this page.
“StormW’s Toolbox” has a plethora of various weather websites.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS