MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 18, 2015…ISSUED 1:30 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TXin the Day 2 Convective Outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_1730

Based on my analysis of the Day 2 Outlook, and graphical output from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, current projected forecast sounding data supports the SPC Outlook information.  Based on certain thermodynamics that will be available, and certain ones which will not, the main severe threat should be limited to strong thunderstorm gusts and a probability of the more organized storm cells producing some severe hail, given a projected lifted index over the area of -2 to -4.  Based on the current information contained in the outlook, I am not looking at a tornado threat at the moment.  I recommend however, that you follow the linked graphics on this page, in the event forecast conditions change by early morning.  Currently, the most recent run of both the GFS and NAM-WRF models from the F5 DATA tend to indicate the best probability for severe weather lies within the circled areas on the following maps, for late afternoon into early evening on Thursday:

F5 DATA GFS SEVERE OUTLINE f5.gfssevere.4pmcst

F5 DATA NAM-WRF SEVERE OUTLINE f5.day2namsevere.7pm

I will not be available tomorrow, so please refer to the SPC website, and the following graphics for up to date severe weather information. The following graphics are linked

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

CURRENT NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP

“StormW’s Toolbox” has a plethora of various weather websites.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 18, 2015…ISSUED 1:30 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. It’s Friday, and the first day of Spring is about to start.(6:45pm) BUT at that time, it should be snowing !. We expect up here 2-5″, but mainly on grassy surfaces and on top of “old snow”. Not much should accumulate on the roads. I’ll let you know what we get. Should start here around noon time, and end 8-10pm tonight.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like Severe Wx Season is starting late this year…or is it just me?

    • Well, actually, there isn’t really any “official” start date, although severe weather usually kicks in around this time of year. As far as March, it all depends. We’ve had cold air intruding into the deep south, up until about 2 – 3 weeks ago. This has a tendency to limit the activity, until we warm up down here, and can keep a fairly constant flow out of the GOMEX so the warm, moist air can clash with the cold, dry air still over the northern tier. So pretty much, we need to see the pattern “change” to where we get some trofs heading south bringing the cold air down, and get the high set up off the east coast to bring in a return flow.

      • Monty says:

        Thanks Storm. It looks like SPC map is getting greener…so to speak. I’ve got a feeling yellow and red aren’t too far away Senior Chief.

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