SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 13, 2015…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good day everyone!

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center), Norman, OK. has issued a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for CENTRAL/SRN MS AND SMALL SLIVERS OF ADJACENT LA/AL…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
DAY1otlk_1300

Based on analysis of the current outlook, and forecast sounding data from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software indicate the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere contain a small series of perturbations, or small vorticies, along with a negative tilt trof.  This, in simple terms, will create enough shear to allow for some rotating thunderstorm cells, hence the probability, albeit small, of a brief or isolated tornado.  Given pretty much the same dynamics as yesterday, with ERL rates on the order of 6.0 – 6.5C, hail should not be a threat, and any tornadic activity should be limited and weak.

Based on the graphics output from the F5 DATA software, which translates the forecast soundings from the various models, into a graphics overlay, the NAM-WRF was the only model that made sense this morning, and depicts the most likely probability for severe weather and possible tornadic activity to lie within the circled area on the map for late afternoon / early evening.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF SEVERE OUTLINE
f5.namsevere.5pm

Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and warnings.

The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the day 2 convective outlook for THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND PART OF EASTERN GEORGIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

I will not be available tomorrow, so please refer to the SPC website, and the following graphics for up to date severe weather information.

The following graphics are linked

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

CURRENT NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP

“StormW’s Toolbox” has a plethora of various weather websites.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 13, 2015…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Good to see you are, “moving on Monty” with your life. Hope Wendy comes on the Blog!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m going to get my new girlfriend Wendy on your blog…if she wants. LOL She loves your page!!

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