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Good day everyone!
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center), Norman, OK. has issued a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for CENTRAL/SRN MS AND SMALL SLIVERS OF ADJACENT LA/AL…
Based on analysis of the current outlook, and forecast sounding data from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software indicate the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere contain a small series of perturbations, or small vorticies, along with a negative tilt trof. This, in simple terms, will create enough shear to allow for some rotating thunderstorm cells, hence the probability, albeit small, of a brief or isolated tornado. Given pretty much the same dynamics as yesterday, with ERL rates on the order of 6.0 – 6.5C, hail should not be a threat, and any tornadic activity should be limited and weak.
Based on the graphics output from the F5 DATA software, which translates the forecast soundings from the various models, into a graphics overlay, the NAM-WRF was the only model that made sense this morning, and depicts the most likely probability for severe weather and possible tornadic activity to lie within the circled area on the map for late afternoon / early evening.
Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and warnings.
The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the day 2 convective outlook for THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND PART OF EASTERN GEORGIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON…
I will not be available tomorrow, so please refer to the SPC website, and the following graphics for up to date severe weather information.
The following graphics are linked
“StormW’s Toolbox” has a plethora of various weather websites.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS