MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 12, 2015…10:20 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good day everyone!  I haven’t forgotten you!!

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center), Norman, OK. has issued a MARGINAL risk area of Severe Thunderstorms across the LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES…in the Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

day1otlk_1300

SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LINK
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Based on my analysis of both the SPC outlook, and forecast sounding parameters derived from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, some parameters for severe weather are going to be of greater values than originally forecast, based on early morning RAOB/SKEW-T sounding data.  Analysis of this information has yielded SBCAPE values of at or near 1000 j/kg, with forecast MLCAPE values at or near 500 j/kg.  The Lifted Indices are forecast to range between -2 to -4.  Albeit the Lapse Rates are forecast to only be on the order of 6 – 6.5 C/KM, the areas over LA and central MS will fall within the left exit region of a 80 – 90 kt jetstreak.  This, along with ample wind shear should be sufficient to allow for some rotating updrafts, thus a good probability of some isolated tornado activity, and possible damaging severe thunderstorm winds.  Given the lack of strong lift, hail doesn’t appear to be a main concern today. 

06Z GFS JETSTREAM FORECAST
06zGFS.jetstreak

Based on the output from the severe weather software which produces the forecast soundings, the following circled areas, based on the RAP and GFS models, should see the greatest probability of severe thunderstorm activity, and the probability of an isolated tornado.  The most likely time for this appears to be between 2:00 – 7:00 P.M. CDT, and may shift eastward as per the outlook.

RAP SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY AREA
f5rap.5pm

GFS SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY AREA
f5gfs.8pm

This weather is being supported by a current surface area of low pressure in the NW GOMEX, currently moving toward the north.  I do not expect ANY type of tropical entity to come out of this, and the low will remain baroclinic in nature associated with a stationary front draped N – S over the NW GOMEX.  This will be working its way ashore over the next 24 hours, over the eastern portion of TX, western LA.

06Z NAM 12 HOUR / 21 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST
06zNAM.1000-500.18Zgif
06zNAM.1000-500

Should any tornadic activity come to fruition, I do not expect anything strong or long tracked.  IF a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area, PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.  Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and advisories.

The following graphics are linked

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

CURRENT NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP

“StormW’s Toolbox” has a plethora of various weather websites.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 12, 2015…10:20 A.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. I’ve been out of pocket for awhile, but appreciate your hard work on our behalf. We are on the eastern edge of the GFS circle. Looks like it will be a good night to stay home, which I would not have known just based on the local info. You do make a difference.

  2. Hank says:

    hey storm when will you be issuing ur early outlook for this years up coming hurricane season? thanks…Hank

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, I hope you are busy with work, making some “dough”!

  4. stuffunee says:

    Thanks Storm! Aint forgot you either! Hope it doesn’t get bad for anyone to my east. Flooding just to my west. Everything missing me but light rain. And yes, I am glad it’s March and not September! 🙂

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