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Good day everyone! I haven’t forgotten you!!
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center), Norman, OK. has issued a MARGINAL risk area of Severe Thunderstorms across the LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES…in the Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LINK
Based on my analysis of both the SPC outlook, and forecast sounding parameters derived from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, some parameters for severe weather are going to be of greater values than originally forecast, based on early morning RAOB/SKEW-T sounding data. Analysis of this information has yielded SBCAPE values of at or near 1000 j/kg, with forecast MLCAPE values at or near 500 j/kg. The Lifted Indices are forecast to range between -2 to -4. Albeit the Lapse Rates are forecast to only be on the order of 6 – 6.5 C/KM, the areas over LA and central MS will fall within the left exit region of a 80 – 90 kt jetstreak. This, along with ample wind shear should be sufficient to allow for some rotating updrafts, thus a good probability of some isolated tornado activity, and possible damaging severe thunderstorm winds. Given the lack of strong lift, hail doesn’t appear to be a main concern today.
Based on the output from the severe weather software which produces the forecast soundings, the following circled areas, based on the RAP and GFS models, should see the greatest probability of severe thunderstorm activity, and the probability of an isolated tornado. The most likely time for this appears to be between 2:00 – 7:00 P.M. CDT, and may shift eastward as per the outlook.
This weather is being supported by a current surface area of low pressure in the NW GOMEX, currently moving toward the north. I do not expect ANY type of tropical entity to come out of this, and the low will remain baroclinic in nature associated with a stationary front draped N – S over the NW GOMEX. This will be working its way ashore over the next 24 hours, over the eastern portion of TX, western LA.
Should any tornadic activity come to fruition, I do not expect anything strong or long tracked. IF a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area, PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and advisories.
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Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS