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Good evening everyone!
Current snow and winter precipitation should clear the U.S. east coast by late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.
Minimum temperatures will remain very cold over most of the nation over the next 3 – 5 days, with the exception of Florida remaining milder. By Wednesday, another low develops and becomes positioned north of the Great Lakes, bring snow, and ice to the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, and portions of the NE and New England regions. This should clear out within about 24 hours, however cold temperatures are expected to remain in place and be reinforced southward, with the freezing line extending well south once again into TX, LA, MS, AL, and GA. As this occurs, a trof of low pressure is forecast to develop just off the coast of the Gulf Coast States, bringing moderate rainfall to the Gulf Coast States and Florida before moving off the east coast and to the NE. The GFS and NAM differ in timing and strength of the low.
By days 7 and 8 into the forecast period, minimum temperatures modify with a warming trend. Going out further in time, and taking this with a grain of salt, by days 8 – 10, this COULD be the end of bitterly to very cold temperatures, as far as minimums, for the deep south.
GFS DAY 7 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GFS DAY 8 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
I performed a little bit of an analysis as to hints of the upcoming hurricane season. Pretty much, the pattern hasn’t changed since my last analysis. The NAO has been pretty much positive the whole winter, meaning a stronger A/B high, meaning a cooler MDR. ENSO is still NEUTRAL, however a tad bit cooler…albeit the current forecast states there could be some slight warming down the road, which could bring us back to the conditions it was at this past season. Although, I did notice the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has taken a sharp rise toward the positive…so we’ll see what happens with ENSO over the next few months. If the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) springs toward warmer conditions, it may help a little, but for right now, I’m still seeing a normal or “average” season.
Please use the following linked graphics for near real time information updates. Remember to refresh this main page first.
I have also gone through my “StormW’s Toolbox” and deleted non working links, and updated outdated links. If you click on the heading, you’ll find a plethora of various weather websites.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS