WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / TROPICAL INFORMATION…ISSUED FEB. 22, 2015…6:35 P.M. EST

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good evening everyone!

Current snow and winter precipitation should clear the U.S. east coast by late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.

Minimum temperatures will remain very cold over most of the nation over the next 3 – 5 days, with the exception of Florida remaining milder.  By Wednesday, another low develops and becomes positioned north of the Great Lakes, bring snow, and ice to the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, and portions of the NE and New England regions.  This should clear out within about 24 hours, however cold temperatures are expected to remain in place and be reinforced southward, with the freezing line extending well south once again into TX, LA, MS, AL, and GA.  As this occurs, a trof of low pressure is forecast to develop just off the coast of the Gulf Coast States, bringing moderate rainfall to the Gulf Coast States and Florida before moving off the east coast and to the NE.  The GFS and NAM differ in timing and strength of the low.

NCEP GFS 57 HOUR FORECAST
gfs_namer_057_1000_500_thick

NCEP NAM
nam_namer_057_1000_500_thick
NCEP GFS 72 HOUR FORECAST
gfs_namer_072_1000_500_thick
NCEP NAM 78 HOUR FORECAST
nam_namer_078_1000_500_thick
GFS MODEL FREEZING LINE (BOLD BLUE LINE) 120 HOUR FORECAST
12z.GFS.FREEZING LINE

By days 7 and 8 into the forecast period, minimum temperatures modify with a warming trend.  Going out further in time, and taking this with a grain of salt, by days 8 – 10, this COULD be the end of bitterly to very cold temperatures, as far as minimums, for the deep south.

GFS DAY 7 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
12zGFSDAY7min
GFS DAY 8 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
12zGFSDAY8min
I performed a little bit of an analysis as to hints of the upcoming hurricane season.  Pretty much, the pattern hasn’t changed since my last analysis.  The NAO has been pretty much positive the whole winter, meaning a stronger A/B high, meaning a cooler MDR.  ENSO is still NEUTRAL, however a tad bit cooler…albeit the current forecast states there could be some slight warming down the road, which could bring us back to the conditions it was at this past season.  Although, I did notice the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has taken a sharp rise toward the positive…so we’ll see what happens with ENSO over the next few months.  If the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) springs toward warmer conditions, it may help a little, but for right now, I’m still seeing a normal or “average” season.

SSEC GOES SATELLITE LOOP

Please use the following linked graphics for near real time information updates.  Remember to refresh this main page first.

OPC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST / FREEZE FORECAST

INTELLICAST CURRENT SURFACE MAP

INTELLICAST CURRENT TEMPERATURES

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (WATCH, WARNING, AND NWS STATEMENTS)

I have also gone through my “StormW’s Toolbox” and deleted non working links, and updated outdated links.  If you click on the heading, you’ll find a plethora of various weather websites.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / TROPICAL INFORMATION…ISSUED FEB. 22, 2015…6:35 P.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…it looks like most of the country is in a progressive pattern. The only thing that saved our ass was the jet was right over us…saving us from a closed low setting up in SE Colorado. We’ve got two more on the way. Still…nothing close to what you guys are getting back East. Please stay safe all.

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