You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.
The Storm Prediction Center, Norman OK., has issued a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…in the Day 1 Convective Outlook
Based on analysis of early morning soundings, lapse rates were strongest from about the 700 – 500 mb layer, with weaker lapse rates from the surface to 800 mb. Soundings also indicated a slight inversion at or about (AOA) 800-850 mb. Based on my analysis of forecast sounding parameters, an isolated tornado threat is slim, however cannot be fully ruled out with any stronger, rotating supercells that may be occurring this afternoon. It is agreed with the SPC, in that the main threat should remain gusty, damaging straight line thunderstorm winds. Based on the early morning soundings, and forecast soundings, I am not particularly looking for hail, as lift is limited, with the surface LI being forecast at only -2. Along with this, the SBCAPE struggling to reach 550 j/kg, and MLCAPE most likely to remain below 1000 j/kg, energy for any hail and severe tornadic activity is limited.
Based on forecast severe weather parameter graphics, the highest probability of sever weather should occur from Noon CST, and 3:00 p.m. CST outlined in the following maps.
The following Doppler Radar display and SPC maps are linked for up to date information
I have also gone through my “StormW’s Toolbox” and deleted non working links, and updated outdated links. If you click on the heading, you’ll find a plethora of various weather websites.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS