SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 21, 2015…12:35 P.M. EST

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

Good afternoon,

The Storm Prediction Center, Norman OK., has issued a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…in the Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of early morning soundings, lapse rates were strongest from about the 700 – 500 mb layer, with weaker lapse rates from the surface to 800 mb.  Soundings also indicated a slight inversion at or about (AOA) 800-850 mb.  Based on my analysis of forecast sounding parameters, an isolated tornado threat is slim, however cannot be fully ruled out with any stronger, rotating supercells that may be occurring this afternoon.  It is agreed with the SPC, in that the main threat should remain gusty, damaging straight line thunderstorm winds.  Based on the early morning soundings, and forecast soundings, I am not particularly looking for hail, as lift is limited, with the surface LI being forecast at only -2.  Along with this, the SBCAPE struggling to reach 550 j/kg, and MLCAPE most likely to remain below 1000 j/kg, energy for any hail and severe tornadic activity is limited.

Based on forecast severe weather parameter graphics, the highest probability of sever weather should occur from Noon CST, and 3:00 p.m. CST outlined in the following maps.

F5 DATA NAM SEVERE AREA 12:00 P.M. CST
f5.namsevere.1pm

F5 DATA NAM SEVERE AREA 3:00 P.M. CST
f5.namsevere.4pm

The following Doppler Radar display and SPC maps are linked for up to date information

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

CURRENT SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (WATCH, WARNING, AND NWS STATEMENTS)

I have also gone through my “StormW’s Toolbox” and deleted non working links, and updated outdated links.  If you click on the heading, you’ll find a plethora of various weather websites.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 21, 2015…12:35 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Wound up with 4-5″ of snow here in Stamford CT. Was a general 3-6″ throughout the Greater NYC Metro area. Sun is out now, which will be around 40F. But back into the Freezer by Monday am. Highs Monday only 17-22f and breezy too! No big storms in our forecast for several days. Just cold!

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