ARCTIC BLAST / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 19, 2015…10:10 A.M. EST

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

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Always bear in mind, forecasts are subject to change, as forecasts beyond 96 hours have the tendency to become less accurate due to changes in information provided by the Global Models, albeit a “general’ idea can be drawn as to an “approximation” of conditions forecast beyond that time out to 120 hours.

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Good day everyone!

The coldest temperatures of the season so far, are expected tonight and Friday night across the nation, especially for the south, including well into the Florida Peninsula.

Someone must of made Ma Nature mad, as this pattern pretty much repeats itself again over the next 7 days.  This system, like the previous, is a quick mover, and temperatures will quickly modify, especially over the southern tier of states by Saturday.  Winter precipitation (snow, ice, etc.) should be clearing the NE and New England areas by Monday morning.  However, current model projections indicate another low to develop, north of the Great Lakes over Canada on Tuesday, bring more cold air and wintry precipitation over the Great Lakes and Ohio valley region on Wed, spreading east into the NE and New England states once again, where snow and ice have not let up, lasting into late Wed. evening, possibly into early Thursday morning of next week.  Currently, looking out to around 7 – 9 days out, another round of very cold air will head south, however with the freezing line remaining only to about Texas, and the northern third of the Gulf Coast states.  It is currently projected these areas will receive snow and a wintry mix of precipitation around the 26th – the 28th.

Of course, given this is out by 7 – 9 days, I will try to have updates as we get closer to that time period.

Boaters and shipping interests should begin to monitor offshore weather, as winds on the eastern portion of the low by Thursday will attain moderate to strong Tropical Storm force.

06Z GFS 30 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST 06zGFS30min
06Z GFS 36 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
06zGFS36min
06Z GFS 180 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
06zGFS180min
06Z GFS 180 HOUR 10M WIND FORECAST
06zGFS180.10m wind
GFS 96 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
06zgfs96hoursnowUS096

12Z NAM 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
12znam124084hoursnowUS084

SSEC GOES SATELLITE LOOP

Please use the following linked graphics for near real time information updates.  Remember to refresh this main page first.

OPC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST / FREEZE FORECAST

INTELLICAST INTERACTIVE WEATHER MAP (CLICK ON MAP TO ACCESS)

INTELLICAST CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES

INTELLICAST CURRENT WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (WATCH, WARNING, AND NWS STATEMENTS)

I have also gone through my “StormW’s Toolbox” and deleted non working links, and updated outdated links.  If you click on the heading, you’ll find a plethora of various weather websites.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to ARCTIC BLAST / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 19, 2015…10:10 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and thanks for reminding us, me, of your “Tool Box”. It is really great! Hey Monty, let us know how much snow you get. We should have snow here due to a weak storm but a lot over “overrunning” of warm air over cold.Snow should start Sat. afternoon, and by midnight, we could have 2-5″, then a change to sleet and rain. Sunday morning could be a “Mess”!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Stay warm back there. It looks like we’ll be getting another taste of winter…possibly the biggest storm of the season unless it drops South.

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