ARCTIC BLAST / EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER/ COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 12, 2015…6:15 P.M. EST

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Good evening everyone!

UPDATE…7:30 A.M. EST…FEB 13, 2015: THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM, CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS, IS NOW POISED TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND NORTHWARD…MAINLY AROUND BOSTON, NORTH.

Arctic air is still on schedule to plunge south, with minimum temperatures that could hit the freezing mark over northern Florida by Valentines Day morning.

Snow and freezing precipitation will once again be in the forecast, beginning over the Great Lakes region early on Saturday, then working east over most of the northern half of the U.S. from VA. to New England, through Sunday morning.  The low pressure system responsible for this, will lift northward late Saturday morning / early Sunday afternoon, leaving cold Arctic air in it’s wake.

GFS 48, 54, AND 66 HOUR NCEP FORECAST MAPS

gfs_namer_048_1000_500_thick

gfs_namer_054_1000_500_thick

gfs_namer_066_1000_500_thick
GFS  48 HOUR STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
12zGFS48min

Cold air is currently expected to remain in place over about the southern 2/3 of the country, while temperatures modify briefly over the extreme southeast portion of the U.S. beginning on Tuesday.  As this occurs, another area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the AL/GA area bringing moderate to possible heavy rain over the SE on the 17th.  I will be revisiting the possibility of probable marginal severe weather around that time given the presence of CCA and WAA being in close proximity. This low is forecast to continue NE, and move offshore of the VACAPES area, becoming the next coastal storm.  As this occurs, more snow and wintry precipitation will begin for the portions of the country mentioned previously.  Current isobar spacing and wind flags indicate a possibility of blizzard conditions for portions of the NE and New England areas, closer toward the coast from possibly Chesapeake Bay (?), northward.  The question mark is there, as this portion of the forecast is 5.5 – 6 days out.  This will usher in more Arctic air, with freezing temperatures forecast to be solidly into northern Florida, possibly close to central portions of the peninsula well inland.

GFS NCEP 144 HOUR FORECAST MAP
gfs_namer_144_1000_500_thick
GFS 144 HOUR SURFACE WIND SPEED (KNOTS)
12zgfs144 10M
GFS 168 HOUR STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
12zgfs168MIN

PLEASE…remember to dress appropriately and to bring pets indoors during these events.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURES (CLICK ON MAP…USE DROPDOWN MENUS)

SSEC GOES SATELLITE LOOP

OPC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST

Please use the following linked graphics for near real time information updates.  Remember to refresh this main page first.

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST / FREEZE FORECAST

INTELLICAST INTERACTIVE WEATHER MAP (CLICK ON MAP TO ACCESS)

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (WATCH, WARNING, AND NWS STATEMENTS)

I will try to have one more update, possibly Sunday if I can work it.

I have also gone through my “StormW’s Toolbox” and deleted non working links, and updated outdated links.  If you click on the heading, you’ll find a plethora of various weather websites.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to ARCTIC BLAST / EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER/ COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 12, 2015…6:15 P.M. EST

  1. Thanks everyone! Haven’t been ignoring you, just busy at work. By the time I get home, get dinner, eat, etc., I don’t have time to forecast or respond.

  2. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, only received about 1-1.5″ of snow. What happened was the primary low over the Great Lakes, “dove” further SSE than anticipated by the models, coming off shore and “bombing out” East of Md., instead of off the Jersey shore, thus it pulled the precip. shield further South. In fact Central and Southern NJ, got 4-7″. Then the Storm moved ENE, instead of NE, closer to the coast. So the precip. skirted Sw CT. and NYC Metro area, and Northern NJ. Eastern New England did get their snows as the storm wrapped a new precip. shield back into Boston area, RI. and Coastal Maine. Far E. Ct. got 4-7″ too. Sunny now here and very windy. About 22F. Lows by Monday morning, near ZERO.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Echoing Mike as well. We get our shot of snow and Arctic air on Monday into Wednesday…but not like you guys back East…especially you LT!! Curious Storm…is this a once every 50/100 year event for the NEUS? It’s crazy!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I echo what Mike says. For the weekend storm, I’m guessing by Sunday AM, I’ll have about 6″ and much drifting, as it will be very windy. I’ll check in on Sunday and let you know what I get.

  5. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks storm I appreciate the time you put into your passion!!!!

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