COASTAL STORM / WINTER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 30, 2015…10:50 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

Kind of a repeat situation over the next 3 – 4 days.  A low currently swinging SE, north of NY State, will slide off the coast over the next 15 hours and begin to deepen.  This will help reinforce current snowfall now occurring over portions of New England and the NE where recent snowfall and blizzard conditions were experienced.  This low is forecast to move NNE and begin to clear the coast over the next 30 hours.  I look for snow and winter precipitation to taper off early Saturday morning and clearing on Saturday evening. Look for sustained offshore winds to reach lower end tropical storm force west of the center early Saturday, then mid range tropical storm force winds over the Gulf of Maine early Saturday afternoon.

A short break is in store, and then another low begins to develop around the southern Ohio/ northern TN valley regions, centered near KY late Sunday evening.  This low is currently projected to move ENE, and slide offshore just along the coastal area of MD. by Monday morning, where it will begin to deepen.  I look for more snow, and/or wintry precipitation to pick up again on Monday within the circled areas.  Look for sustained onshore winds to reach lower end tropical storm force along portions of the east coast.  As of the time of analysis, I am currently not anticipating blizzard conditions.

GFS WIND/PRECIP
gfs_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip
NAM WIND/PRECIP
nam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip

06Z GFS 10M WIND SPEED MAPS IN KNOTS
06zGFS81
06zGFS84

NAM 10M WIND SPEED MAPS IN KNOTS
12zNAM.78HOUR
12zNAM.81HOUR

EAST COAST/NEW ENGLAND WAVE AND WIND FORECAST




OPC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST

GFS AND NAM PROJECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 48 HOURS
06zgfs48hoursnowUS048
12znam4084hoursnowUS48

GFS AND NAM 4 DAY SNOWFALL PROJECTION
06zgfs96hoursnowUS096
12znam124084hoursnowUS084

GOES SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Please use the following linked graphics for near real time information updates.  Remember to refresh this main page first.

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST / FREEZE FORECAST

INTELLICAST INTERACTIVE WEATHER MAP (CLICK ON MAP TO ACCESS)

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (WATCH, WARNING, AND NWS STATEMENTS)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to COASTAL STORM / WINTER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 30, 2015…10:50 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Well our snow storm is over, and we got a good amount. After a back-end 3-3.5″, our final total was about 10.5″.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah no “Blizzard” is expected with this one, just a good old-fashioned “snow storm”, with 6-12″ possible for the Greater NYC Metro area. Starting Sunday, Midnight, Continuing to late in the day Monday. It will be cold during the snow period , with temps. mostly between 18-23F . This of course is subject to change, but that’s the way it looks as of now, on Friday, late afternoon.

    • originallt says:

      With the storm taking a more “northern ” path, we will be closer to, and on the “mix” line, with snow totals down to probably 4-8″ here in Fairfield County CT. BUT with a lot more sleet and ice accumulation. So Monday morning looks to be very dangerous for travel in my area. Temps. during the precip. time now expected to range from 28-33F.

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