EASTERN SEABOARD COASTAL STORM FORECAST / SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JAN. 23, 2014…ISSUED 12:10 P.M. EST

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED… Your donation helps keep this site operational.  Funds assist in web hosting, software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.)  Your help is appreciated.

Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

The low which will eventually become a coastal storm for the Eastern Seaboard, is taking shape off the Gulf Coastal States as I write this synopsis.  This system will be responsible for light to moderate rain today and tomorrow over the south, with heavier amounts of rain being most prevalent over the Florida Peninsula.

This low is forecast to move toward the NE, and exit off the VACAPES area by Saturday morning.  Once over the Atlantic, this low is forecast to steadily deepen, and continue NE just off the coast, a little closer than originally forecast.  This will allow for winds along the coast to be somewhat stronger than previously forecast, and the possibility of greater snowfall accumulation totals over the areas to be affected.  I am not looking for blizzard conditions, however blowing snow should be a factor.  Based on current forecast motion / timing of this system, Snow should begin to affect portions of PA., WV, and VA (mostly western portions), and portions of the TN Valley in as little as 24 hours from 12Z this morning, and spread eastward across the Piedmont, Mid Atlantic, New England and NE regions.  North facing coastal and beach areas, north of the center, mainly around Cape Cod and north along the coast could experience coastal flooding and beach erosion.  South facing beaches, south of the storm center may be at risk as well.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms in association with this system, for PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN FL…and EXTREME EASTERN NC…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

 GFS 12Z 1000-500 MB MAP 06 HOURS12z06gfs
GFS 12 HOURS
12z12gfs
GFS 24 HOURS
12zGFS24

GFS 33 HOURS
12zGFS33
GFS 10 METER WIND SPEED
12zGFS36.10MWIND
NAM 10 METER WIND SPEED
12zNAM36.10M

Another low will move in from the west over the weekend, and another round of snow or winter precipitation should begin to affect the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions beginning late Sunday.

Winds of 25 – 35 mph may be experienced in some regions close to the immediate coast east of the storm center, with wind reaching close to, or attaining hurricane force well east of the storm center.  Small craft should remain inport, and shipping interests for the North Atlantic should monitor this system closely.

OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST (LIVE MAP)

NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER (CLICK ON MAP FOR NEAR REAL TIME BUOY DATA)

WAVEWATCH / STORMSURF EAST COAST WIND SPEED / DIRECTION LOOP

EAST COAST SEA HEIGHTS LOOP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST / FREEZE FORECAST

GFS / NAM 96 AND 84 HOUR SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS
12zgfs96hoursnowUS096
12znam124084hoursnowUS084

INTELLICAST INTERACTIVE WEATHER MAP (CLICK ON MAP TO ACCESS)

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (WATCH, WARNING, AND NWS STATEMENTS)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to EASTERN SEABOARD COASTAL STORM FORECAST / SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JAN. 23, 2014…ISSUED 12:10 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, wound up with about 7″ in Stamford. There was a STEEP gradient in snow amounts. Much higher amounts in Central and Eastern CT. and RI and Eastern and SE Mass. Glastonbury for example, up around 20″ , Higher amounts further East. It seems the surface low was “captured” a bit late by an upper air feature at the 500mb level. If it had been captured earlier, and thus pulled closer to me, Sw Ct would have been “in” on the Party! Long Island, at least the eastern half, have been hit with 15-30″. So it was close. I think NYC had 8-10″ or so. They had an earlier in the day 4″ from a pre-storm remnant of the original Alberta Clipper. Thats it for now, Just went thru what I believe will be our last “snow band”. Take care, LT.

  2. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, we are under BLIZZARD WARNINGS up here, total snow accumulation by Tuesday night should be between, 20-30″!!! Winds 20-30mph., with higher gusts, winds 50-60mph, near and over off shore waters. Could have hurricane force gusts up near Cape Cod. Snow should start on and off on Monday, but get very heavy by Monday night, and snow into Tuesday late afternoon. Could be an “epic” storm. Temps. should remain from 18-23F during Monday night into most of Tuesday, so no Mixing of precip. here. Low could have a pressure of about 980mb as it slowly moves to and past the Cape Cod area. I’ll of course report in to you what is actually going on with this storm(assuming I don’t lose power! )

  3. originallt says:

    Wound up with 5.5″ – 6″ of snow here in Stamford. This amount was common for many areas in southern CT. Watching a powerful Nor’easter develop by Tuesday, almost certain to hit eastern New England. The jury is still out as to what we get here(i.e..how much snow) in Sw CT. and the Greater NYC Metro area.

  4. theresa kay says:

    thank you

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, I’ll let you know what’s going on by me tomorrow.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s