COASTAL STORM / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 22, 2015…11:45 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

Analysis this morning of the Global models (GFS and ECMWF) indicate a Coastal / Offshore storm to develop off the VACAPES area in about 48 – 51 hours.  This low begins just offshore of the Gulf Coast states in about 12 – 24 hours, and progresses toward the NE, bringing rain to the Gulf Coast States and the Florida Peninsula over the next 36 hours.

06Z GFS SURFACE MAP 24 HOURS
06zGFS24
GFS 48 HOURS
06zGFS48
GFS 60 HOURS06zGFS60
GFS 72 HOURS
06zGFS72
GFS 60 HOUR 10M WIND SPEED
06zGFS60.10MWIND

00Z ECMWF SURFACE MAP 48 HOURS
00zECMWF48
ECMWF 72 HOURS
00zECMWF72

Once this low moves off the East Coast and into the Atlantic, it will begin to deepen and continue moving in a NELY direction.  A little faster deepening will occur as the system becomes parallel with the Mid Atlantic region.  At around 72 – 84 hours in the forecast period, from 06Z this morning, the storm could attain sub 970 mb pressure.  Surface wind speeds, mainly east and south of the center, 100 – 200 miles offshore may attain sustained speeds of 50 – 60 miles an hour.  For the most part, winds will be an offshore wind for most of the region, with the exception of states north and NW of the center will experience an onshore wind.  Wave heights along and near the coast are forecast to only be on the order of around 5 –  8 ft.  However with the easterly fetch, there could be some minor coastal flooding and minor beach erosion…briefly.  Seas 100 – 150 miles east of the coast, are forecast to be on the order of around 11 –  16 ft, with seas reaching 32+ feet near and east of 64W Longitude.  ALL shipping interests should keep abreast of the high seas forecast.

WAVEWATCH / STORMSURF WINDS FORECAST NEW ENGLAND AREA ANIMATION

WAVEWATCH / STORMSURF SEA HEIGHTS NEW ENGLAND AREA ANIMATION

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

I expect another round of snow and wintry precipitation for portions of northern Ohio, PA, and portions of western NY State mainly in the form of Lake Effect snow.  Portions of VA, The Mid Atlantic region, and New England should see snow and / or a mix in about 2 – 2.5 days…not ruling out blowing snow.  Currently, I am not looking for any blizzard conditions at the moment.  Wind strength and precip type and amount should vary if there is any shift in track closer to the coastal area.

GFS 96 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL PROJECTION

Minimum night time temperatures continue to fluctuate somewhat over the next 96 hours, followed by a forecast moderation to warmer minimum temperatures by next week.

GFSX 7 DAY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST (CLICK THE GRAPHIC, THEN USE THE DROP DOWN MENUS)

The following graphics are linked for current information.

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST / FREEZE FORECAST

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (WATCH, WARNING, AND NWS STATEMENTS)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to COASTAL STORM / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 22, 2015…11:45 A.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I know you are busy with other work and appreciate the time you give to us. LT, I am sorry the Gulf South is sending y’all such bad weather. Stay safe!

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