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Good day everyone!
Analysis this morning of the Global models (GFS and ECMWF) indicate a Coastal / Offshore storm to develop off the VACAPES area in about 48 – 51 hours. This low begins just offshore of the Gulf Coast states in about 12 – 24 hours, and progresses toward the NE, bringing rain to the Gulf Coast States and the Florida Peninsula over the next 36 hours.
Once this low moves off the East Coast and into the Atlantic, it will begin to deepen and continue moving in a NELY direction. A little faster deepening will occur as the system becomes parallel with the Mid Atlantic region. At around 72 – 84 hours in the forecast period, from 06Z this morning, the storm could attain sub 970 mb pressure. Surface wind speeds, mainly east and south of the center, 100 – 200 miles offshore may attain sustained speeds of 50 – 60 miles an hour. For the most part, winds will be an offshore wind for most of the region, with the exception of states north and NW of the center will experience an onshore wind. Wave heights along and near the coast are forecast to only be on the order of around 5 – 8 ft. However with the easterly fetch, there could be some minor coastal flooding and minor beach erosion…briefly. Seas 100 – 150 miles east of the coast, are forecast to be on the order of around 11 – 16 ft, with seas reaching 32+ feet near and east of 64W Longitude. ALL shipping interests should keep abreast of the high seas forecast.
I expect another round of snow and wintry precipitation for portions of northern Ohio, PA, and portions of western NY State mainly in the form of Lake Effect snow. Portions of VA, The Mid Atlantic region, and New England should see snow and / or a mix in about 2 – 2.5 days…not ruling out blowing snow. Currently, I am not looking for any blizzard conditions at the moment. Wind strength and precip type and amount should vary if there is any shift in track closer to the coastal area.
Minimum night time temperatures continue to fluctuate somewhat over the next 96 hours, followed by a forecast moderation to warmer minimum temperatures by next week.
The following graphics are linked for current information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS