WINTER WEATHER / POSSIBLE COASTAL/OFFSHORE STORM QUICKCAST…ISSUED JAN. 20, 2015…8:50 P.M. EST

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Good evening everyone!

Work has kept me from updating the site in the past few days.

Just wanted to give a quick overview of what’s coming up, and will try to have a full update on Thursday.

Minimum overnight temperatures should not fluctuate much over the next 3 days, with colder air then extending further south, however with the extreme south and SE remaining fairly mild.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST (CLICK ON GRAPHIC, THEN SELECT FROM THE DROP DOWN MENUS)

A quick analysis of the Global models indicates the low currently over Texas, will move toward the ESE to just offshore of the Gulf coast states over the next 72 hours, where it then crosses the FL. Panhandle and northern FL. peninsula, before turning to the NE – ENE.  The low will then evolve and deepen into a coastal/offshore storm with the closest point being around the Tidewater area, before continuing NE with the strongest effects remaining mostly offshore on the east side of the low, where winds could reach close to strong tropical storm force in some areas east of the center.  The GFS seems the have the handle on this feature at the moment, as of the latest run on the Global models, as it currently is the only one which has the low over Texas initialized.

18ZGFS 10M WIND / MSLP MAP 72 HOURS
18zgfs72
GFS 87 HOURS
18zgfs87
GFS 102 HOURS
18zgfs102

As this low makes it’s way NE off the coast, I currently expect possible snowfall or wintry precipitation for portions of the TN Valley region, W. VA, W. KY, and portions of VA and the Mid Atlantic region, based on the NCEP GFS model animation information.

GFS 96 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL
18zgfs96hoursnowUS096

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to WINTER WEATHER / POSSIBLE COASTAL/OFFSHORE STORM QUICKCAST…ISSUED JAN. 20, 2015…8:50 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm All us Weather “Geeks” up here are watching the storm for Saturday. At this long range, looking for a snow or snow/rain situation here in Sw CT. And windy too. Of course I’ll let you know what actually happens during the day on Sat. and Sat. night.–Glad you are getting a lot of work. I know that helps the finances!

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