WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 16, 2015…1:10 P.M. EST

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Good day to everyone!

I don’t know if it is a glitch in the models, as the Global models, as well as the regional NAM, are indicating a roller coaster pattern in overnight minimum temperatures over the next 3 – 4 days.  I have placed the graphics at 12 hours apart in the forecast period, which clearly shows the fluctuation  I utilized the NAM model, as graphics from the GFS had a glitch.

NAM 24 HOUR SURFACE FROM 12Z
12zNAM24min
NAM 36 HOUR
12zNAM36min
NAM 48 HOUR
12zNAM48min
NAM 60 HOUR
12zNAM60min
NAM 72 HOUR
12zNAM72min
NAM 84 HOUR
12zNAM84min
Analysis of the GFS model animation from the NCEP site doesn’t really indicate anything much in the way of precipitation over the next 72 – 84 hours, thus projected accumulated snowfall amounts are minimal.

NAM 84 HOUR SNOWFALL
12znam124084hoursnowUS084

GFS 96 HOUR SNOWFALL
12zgfs96hoursnowUS096

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

As we near the 72 -96 hour time frame, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the Mid Atlantic / NE coast.  I will revisit this late Sun / early Mon. to try and determine what conditions will be in store for that area.

Remember to click on the graphics for updated information.  Clicking on the GFSX minimum temperature forecast graphic will take you to the GFSX page.  Use the drop down menus on the left to retrieve data you may be interested in.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (This map displays active watch, warnings, advisories and short term forecasts in the lower 48 US states.)


Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 16, 2015…1:10 P.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Got a better chance to look at this. Our temps have been all over the place and the storm track has been playing games as well. It’s January one day and April that night. It’s rare that we see January rain but this year we have…followed by a nasty visit by a dipping jet and another Arctic surge of air. Result…little beneficial precip but a coating of ice that would piss off Mr. Happy. Summer can’t come fast enough Senior Chief!!

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