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URGENT UPDATE…ISSUE 3:30 P.M. EST FROM THIS OFFICE:
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS JUST UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO ENHANCED OVER A PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. Tornado chances have increased since this morning!
Good day everyone! Finally a break in the work schedule and holiday events!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of MS/AL AND SERN LA…
A MARGINAL risk has been designated elsewhere from the CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR SRN TN BORDER WITH AL/MS…
Based on analysis of the SPC Outlook, and forecast sounding indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather software using the RAP model, which was the closest in resembling the outlook outline, severe weather should occur within the MARGINAL risk area, with the highest probability being within the SLIGHT risk area. As the day progresses, an increase in effective shear and SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) increasing in range from 200 – 400 over the SLIGHT risk area will support supercells and QLCS / LEWP formations. This, and other severe weather indices parameters during analysis, combined with WAA (Warm Air Advection) and vertical mixing, will cause a threat for isolated tornadoes within the stronger, rotating cells. The RAP model output from this morning indicates the highest probability for any tornadic activity will lie within the circled areas on the following maps, most likely to occur between 2:00 – 5:00 p.m. EST (1:00 – 4:00 p.m. CST).
Residents within the risk areas today should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements, Advisories and / or Warnings. Please use the following, linked map for this real time information by clicking on your area of concern.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)