SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 03, 2015…10:30 A.M. EST

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED… Your donation helps keep this site operational.  Funds assist in web hosting, weather software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.)  Your help is appreciated.

Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

URGENT UPDATE…ISSUE 3:30 P.M. EST FROM THIS OFFICE:

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS JUST UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO ENHANCED OVER A PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  Tornado chances have increased since this morning!

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Good day everyone!  Finally a break in the work schedule and holiday events!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of  MS/AL AND SERN LA…

A MARGINAL risk has been designated elsewhere from the CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR SRN TN BORDER WITH AL/MS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

INTELLICAST MS VALLEY RADAR (LINKED TO NWS DOPPLER LOOP)

Based on analysis of the SPC Outlook, and forecast sounding indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather software using the RAP model, which was the closest in resembling the outlook outline, severe weather should occur within the MARGINAL risk area, with the highest probability being within the SLIGHT risk area.  As the day progresses, an increase in effective shear and SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) increasing in range from 200 – 400 over the SLIGHT risk area will support supercells and  QLCS / LEWP formations.  This, and other severe weather indices parameters during analysis, combined with WAA (Warm Air Advection) and vertical mixing, will cause a threat for isolated tornadoes within the stronger, rotating cells.  The RAP model output from this morning indicates the highest probability for any tornadic activity will lie within the circled areas on the following maps, most likely to occur between 2:00 – 5:00 p.m. EST (1:00 – 4:00 p.m. CST).

F5 DATA RAP MODEL 2:00 P.M. EST
f5rap.2pm

F5 DATA RAP MODEL 5:00 P.M. EST
f5rap.5pm

Residents within the risk areas today should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements, Advisories and / or Warnings.  Please use the following, linked map for this real time information by clicking on your area of concern.

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (This map displays active watch, warnings, advisories and short term forecasts in the lower 48 US states.)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 03, 2015…10:30 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, (glad you are busy with work!). Had 1″ of snow here yesterday, then a lot of rain. Looks like it will get colder starting Monday, a “clipper” system affecting us Tuesday, maybe 1-3″ of snow. Then really getting cold, Wed/Thurs.–Highs by Thurs. 15-20F, Lows 5-10F. That’s cold for us. I guess Monty is used to it!

  2. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm, looks like it could get bumpy here in LA ( lower Alabama)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s