COLD WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / BRIEF TROPICAL REPORT…ISSUED DEC. 29, 2014…11:40 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

Doesn’t appear to be to much in the way of “weather” over the next 3 – 5 days, with the exception of freezing to below freezing minimum temperatures working east, and covering a great majority of the country by 48 –  72 hours, as a very strong high pressure system over the west builds in.

GFS 48 HOUR FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE STATION PLOTS
GFS.48
GFS 66 HOUR
GFS.66
GFS 72 HOUR
GFS.72
I’m not looking for any real snowfall over the east during this time.  Some snow may occur in higher elevations over WV/VA within the next 24 – 27 hours, but should be quick to clear out.

GFS 72 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FORECAST

In about 8 – 10 days, temperatures are once again forecast to plunge, and below freezing temps once again could be as far south as south central TX.

GFS 214 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GFS.214

GFSX 7 DAY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR (SNOW, ICE, RAIN)

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE FORECAST

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (This map displays active watch, warnings, advisories and short term forecasts in the lower 48 US states.)

Just a brief touch about the 2015 Hurricane Season:

Based on current conditions of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and the pressure pattern since late October, daily analysis of the Atlantic high, and the SOI since mid summer, unless we get a weakening of the NAO and breakdown of the subtropical ridge, the upcoming season could match this past season, or be close to the long term average of 10, 6, and 2.  The NAO has been for the most part in a positive state/trend, and the subtropical ridge has been fairly strong since the end of the season.  This has kept SST anomalies cooler than average in the MDR thus far.  The SOI is indicative to the possible onset of El Nino, albeit climate models are indicating Neutral, warm biased conditions to persist…pretty much the setup for most of 2014.  Based on the unknown variable as to whether or not these conditions will change during late spring, I am unable to provide an ACCURATE preliminary seasonal forecast at the moment.  I do have some analog years in mind, however depending on the trend of the variables, some analogs point to an average season, with a couple pointing toward somewhat above average.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALY MAP

NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST

SOI RUNNING 30 DAY MEAN


I will be watching the trends over the next few months, and will hopefully have a better “picture” of things during the spring.

Have a blessed day, and best wishes for the New Year!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to COLD WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / BRIEF TROPICAL REPORT…ISSUED DEC. 29, 2014…11:40 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thank you , Storm, and a Happy and Healthy New Year to you and your family. That is most important.

  2. Ramiro Menendez says:

    Hello Mr Storm wishing you a Happy New Year and thanks for your excellent job all year round.

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