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Good day everyone!
Doesn’t appear to be to much in the way of “weather” over the next 3 – 5 days, with the exception of freezing to below freezing minimum temperatures working east, and covering a great majority of the country by 48 – 72 hours, as a very strong high pressure system over the west builds in.
GFS 48 HOUR FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE STATION PLOTS
GFS 66 HOUR
GFS 72 HOUR
I’m not looking for any real snowfall over the east during this time. Some snow may occur in higher elevations over WV/VA within the next 24 – 27 hours, but should be quick to clear out.
In about 8 – 10 days, temperatures are once again forecast to plunge, and below freezing temps once again could be as far south as south central TX.
Just a brief touch about the 2015 Hurricane Season:
Based on current conditions of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and the pressure pattern since late October, daily analysis of the Atlantic high, and the SOI since mid summer, unless we get a weakening of the NAO and breakdown of the subtropical ridge, the upcoming season could match this past season, or be close to the long term average of 10, 6, and 2. The NAO has been for the most part in a positive state/trend, and the subtropical ridge has been fairly strong since the end of the season. This has kept SST anomalies cooler than average in the MDR thus far. The SOI is indicative to the possible onset of El Nino, albeit climate models are indicating Neutral, warm biased conditions to persist…pretty much the setup for most of 2014. Based on the unknown variable as to whether or not these conditions will change during late spring, I am unable to provide an ACCURATE preliminary seasonal forecast at the moment. I do have some analog years in mind, however depending on the trend of the variables, some analogs point to an average season, with a couple pointing toward somewhat above average.
Have a blessed day, and best wishes for the New Year!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)