MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…PRELIMINARY SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 17, 2014…12:00 NOON EST

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Good day everyone!

Since the cold pattern is fairly much status quo, this synopsis will address probable severe weather for Thursday and Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms Thursday night for much of S. Central TX. in the Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Given the lack of some thermodynamic properties in the forecast, the main threat with the risk appears to be in the form of some possible severe hail with the stronger thunderstorm activity.

As of my analysis this morning, neither the GFS nor NAM models seemed to interested in the scenario.  As f this morning, neither model indicated any specific “target” area for Thursday.  I will be running the severe weather software from F5 DATA again in the a.m., for a reassessment to see if the models show any change in severe parameters, and will update the synopsis as this becomes the Day 1 outlook.

The SPC has also designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast for Friday.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

A series of shortwave impulses are forecast to ride the southern jetstream split in the period.  This, coupled with an increase in mid level shear, could produce an isolated tornado, which could be limited closer to the coast.

Analysis of data from F5 DATA Severe Weather software did indicate 2 areas (circled in red) where the probability for severe thunderstorms should be the greatest on Friday afternoon.

F5 DATA SOFTWARE OUTPUT
f5.severe

I will not be able to follow this on Friday, as my work schedule is earlier in the a.m.  However all the pertinent graphics will be posted and linked for up to date information.  Just remember to refresh the synopsis page first, then click on the graphics.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…PRELIMINARY SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 17, 2014…12:00 NOON EST

  1. originallt says:

    Looks like our weekend storm won’t be that bad, and the Xmas storm appears to be centered in the Great Lakes, so the East Coast will be on the warm side of it, and we’ll get a lot of rain. So No “White Christmas” coming up, here anyways.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like you’ve got IAH…MSY and LFT on your target list. I’ll pass it on. Thanks always Senior Chief!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm.

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