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Good day everyone!
Since the cold pattern is fairly much status quo, this synopsis will address probable severe weather for Thursday and Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms Thursday night for much of S. Central TX. in the Day 2 Convective Outlook
Given the lack of some thermodynamic properties in the forecast, the main threat with the risk appears to be in the form of some possible severe hail with the stronger thunderstorm activity.
As of my analysis this morning, neither the GFS nor NAM models seemed to interested in the scenario. As f this morning, neither model indicated any specific “target” area for Thursday. I will be running the severe weather software from F5 DATA again in the a.m., for a reassessment to see if the models show any change in severe parameters, and will update the synopsis as this becomes the Day 1 outlook.
The SPC has also designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast for Friday.
A series of shortwave impulses are forecast to ride the southern jetstream split in the period. This, coupled with an increase in mid level shear, could produce an isolated tornado, which could be limited closer to the coast.
Analysis of data from F5 DATA Severe Weather software did indicate 2 areas (circled in red) where the probability for severe thunderstorms should be the greatest on Friday afternoon.
I will not be able to follow this on Friday, as my work schedule is earlier in the a.m. However all the pertinent graphics will be posted and linked for up to date information. Just remember to refresh the synopsis page first, then click on the graphics.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)