COLD WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 11, 2014…11:35 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

Based on my analysis of Global models, and regional NAM model, temperatures will be modifying over portions of the Central U.S., especially over the Texas and the Central Plains states.  Modeling reveals a pretty much stagnant pattern over the next 48 – 60 hours, with an Omega block centered over Texas.  This is forecast to slowly move eastward during the next 72 hours.  This type of high is labeled an “Omega Block”, as it resembles the shape of the Greek letter Omega, and blocks any “weather” from coming directly east.  Instead, it forces weather northward on it’s west side in an up and over sort of motion.

GFS 1000-500 MB 72 HOUR FORECAST MAP
06zGFS

ECMWF 1000-500 MB 72 HOUR FORECAST MAP
ECMWF

So pretty much, Texas and the Central Plains can expect minimum and maximum temperatures to become somewhat warmer, while the east remains cold.

GFS STATION PLOTS 72 HOUR FORECAST MIN. TEMPERATURES
GFSMin

GFS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE 72 HOUR PLOT
GFSMax

NAM 72 HOUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PLOT
nammax

NWS Doppler radar indicates snow in portions of the NE and New England area.  Snow currently falling on the southern portions, over PA / NJ area should begin to taper off late this evening, and should begin to move out of the area in early morning hours.

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

Rain should begin to move in over the Texas Panhandle, and portions of the Central Plains in about 72 – 78 hours from this mornings early model runs.

So far, there is no severe weather forecast over the next 5 – 7 days.

I have to work Fri. and Sat., so I will most likely not have another update until Monday.

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to COLD WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 11, 2014…11:35 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Hope you , Storm, and everyone are having a good weekend.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Getting ready for a little byproduct from the Pineapple Express via Norcal. I’ll let you know if it’s anything big…doubt it.

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