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Good day everyone!
After some deep thought, I decided to issue this outlook based on the fact the area of disturbed weather has persisted for 24 hours or more.
An area of disturbed weather is located just offshore of the vicinity north of the Isthmus of Panama.
Analysis of various channels of satellite loop imagery indicate cyclonic turning, mainly confined to the mid levels of the atmosphere. The recent vorticity maps indicate vorticity is present at the 500 and 700 mb heights.
The area is currently under approximately 40 – 50 kts of deep layer wind shear so this disturbed weather is tilted at the moment.
Analysis of the recent GFS wind shear forecast from the tropical portion of the model, indicates wind shear to briefly subside in 4 days. At the moment, I really am not looking for development, however I will be monitoring this area over the next 72 – 96 hours in case upper level winds become more favorable. One feature I did take note of in Water Vapor imagery, was a mid – upper level low backing away to the SSW over the Yucatan Channel area, which will ventilate the area in question.
Analysis of current steering in the mid levels indicates weak steering currents, and analysis of forecast steering layers maps indicates this area could remain stationary over the next 48 – 60 hours, before possibly entering into the Pacific side.
I will not have another update until Friday.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)