SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED DEC. 03, 2014…11:40 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

After some deep thought, I decided to issue this outlook based on the fact the area of disturbed weather has persisted for 24 hours or more.

An area of disturbed weather is located just offshore of the vicinity north of the Isthmus of Panama.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

Analysis of various channels of satellite loop imagery indicate cyclonic turning, mainly confined to the mid levels of the atmosphere.  The recent vorticity maps indicate vorticity is present at the 500 and 700 mb heights.

The area is currently under approximately 40 –  50 kts of deep layer wind shear so this disturbed weather is tilted at the moment.

Analysis of the recent GFS wind shear forecast from the tropical portion of the model, indicates wind shear to briefly subside in 4 days.  At the moment, I really am not looking for development, however I will be monitoring this area over the next 72 –  96 hours in case upper level winds become more favorable.  One feature I did take note of in Water Vapor imagery, was a mid – upper level low backing away to the SSW over the Yucatan Channel area, which will ventilate the area in question.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS 96 HOUR SHEAR

WATL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP

Analysis of current steering in the mid levels indicates weak steering currents, and analysis of forecast steering layers maps indicates this area could remain stationary over the next 48 – 60 hours, before possibly entering into the Pacific side.

I will not have another update until Friday.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED DEC. 03, 2014…11:40 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Big Nor’Easter expected up here, Tuesday into most of Wed. A Low forming off of S.C., will move Northward, then be “captured” by an upper level low over the Long Island area, and move very little for two days or so. Heavy rains near and along the coast, then possibly heavy wet snow well NW of NYC, in extreme NW NJ, the Mid-Hudson Valley, and NW CT. I’ll of course report in and tell you what I get. Right now, I got down to 20F overnight, and the Barometer is very high at 30.69″,still rising.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I think someone needs to get “Momma Nature” a calendar!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm.

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