WINTER WEATHER AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 01, 2014…11:00 A.M. EST

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Good morning everyone!

Frigid weather grips most of the country this morning with below freezing temperatures.

GFS SURFACE TEMPERATURE CONTOURS
GFS2M

Based on analysis of Global and Regional models, the frigid air begins to retreat more toward the north in about 30 – 36 hours from the time of this forecast, with very mild minimum temperatures forecast for the deep south and SEUS.  The following are projected minimum temperature ranges for overnight tomorrow.

GFS 36/42 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE CONTOURS
GFS2M36
GFSMin
The following are accumulated total snowfall projections from the NAM and GFS models out to 84 hours and 96 hours, respectively.

NAM
12znam4084hoursnowUS084

GFS
GFS96snow

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (CLICK YOUR STATE OR AREA OF INTEREST FOR CURRENT NWS INFORMATION)

I am still monitoring the tropical situation posed by the Global models.  Models are still in agreement of an area of low pressure developing SSE of Bermuda by late in the week, and moving it NEWD.

We still have the other side of the house, in that the NCEP / EMC Multi and Ensemble models indicate a 70% probability of cyclogenesis north of the Colombian coast, and the FIM 8 and FIM 9 models developing a low and bringing it toward the NE.

NCEP / EMC MULTI AND ENSEMBLE MODELS

The NCEP ESRL 500 mb anomaly departure still indicates a significant lowering of 500 mb pressures in the Caribbean in about 72 hours.

500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURES

I will continue to monitor these areas, and if development occurs, I will post a Special Tropical Weather Outlook.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to WINTER WEATHER AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 01, 2014…11:00 A.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like the NHC is laying back on the tropics…figures. I’m back at work full time until it’s my left shoulders turn so should be able to get you something shortly Senior Chief.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for all you do and for the reminder that not all of us are out of the tropical woods yet. At the moment, I am in the middle ground between the freezing winter weather and the tropical possibilities. BTW, I will be sending something in the next couple days, once my December rent check comes in.

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