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Good evening everyone!
At midnight, the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season will officially come to a close. Now, just when you thought the shenanigans and model confusion were over with, Mother nature appears to have one more card up her sleeve, along with MODEL MAYHEM!
Analysis of the recent Global Model runs, indicates the 3 major Global Models are in agreement with the current Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC in Miami, FL. in that an area of low pressure may develop in the CATL ocean beginning as early as late Thursday / early Friday. The 3 most used models do indicate this, with the GFS being the most aggressive early on, the CMC catching up, and the ECMWF being about 24 hours slower, but with all 3 developing the low, which could attain some sub-tropical characteristics. As of the 7:00 p.m. EST outlook update, the NHC designated a LOW (10%) probability of formation over the next 5 days. Earlier in the day, the probability had been higher at 20%.
Based on my analysis this evening of items such as forecast wind shear, sst’s, etc., this could have the chance to acquire some sub-tropical characteristics, as models do indicate this could begin to acquire a warm core. Albeit wind shear is not forecast to be conducive for tropical development, sea surface temperatures are more than ample warm to support a sub-tropical transition. If this occurs, it is unknown at the moment if the NHC would name the system, prior to it becoming post tropical, as the forecast at the moment calls for 45 – 50 mph sustained winds in the NE & NW quadrants, away from the center. IF it should acquire enough sub-tropical characteristics and is named, it would become Sub Tropical Storm Isaias, and would be the 9th storm of 2014.
Analysis of the updated steering layers forecast maps indicate this would only pose a threat to North Atlantic shipping.
Now, the fun part is, there is a discrepancy in some of the information I analyzed this evening, as some of the modeling has gone off on a tangent, pulling said system out of the Caribbean Sea. At the moment, I believe this to be erroneous. However, I have modeling agreement of something trying to develop just NNW of the Colombian coast around the same time frame…96 – 120 hours out from 18Z this afternoon. The NCEP / ECM Cyclogenesis tracking models have indicated in the past three runs, indicate a 70% probability of cyclogenesis in the area.
The FIM Model also indicates a low trying to develop in the same location. The following is the FIM 8 and FIM 9 model solution
If that weren’t enough, the NCEP ESRL model page shows a significant lowering of pressure in the NCEP Ens. mean normalized 500 mb anomaly departure.
I have a feeling this could be an erroneous anomaly in the modeling, however I will continue to monitor both areas, and will issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook if warranted.
Eventually, if I ever get a “true” break in the weather, I intend to post my summary as to the below average storm activity this season.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)