COASTAL / WINTER STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 26. 2014…10:00 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

The system that brought me 4.36″ of rainfall yesterday and early this morning, is moving quickly along the Eastern Seaboard.  By later this afternoon, this should be located off the Tidewater area.

NAM MODEL UPDATE
NAM.10mwind

U.S. EASTERN SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP

Analysis of Wave Watch / Stormsurf information still indicates  sustained winds near portions of the coastal areas, and especially offshore, could attain Tropical Storm force in excess of 40 – 45 mph.  I have no real change to the forecast, in that coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur.  I will not rule out some power outages due to the winds, and already soaked grounds from previous snowfall which has been melting over the past few days, as well as inland flooding due to the combination of rain associated with this system, and previous precipitation, which could topple power poles, or trees into power poles.

WW3 / STORMFURY WIND AND SEA HEIGHT

CAROLINA AREA

NEW JERSEY AREA

NEW ENGLAND AREA

As this moves further toward the north, rain will begin to turn to snow, and/or wintry precipitation, most likely around the 11:00 a.m. EST time period for the areas of W. VA., PA, and northward, with snowfall moving closer toward the coast.

The following maps are 48 hour snowfall accumulations from the GFS and NAM models:

GFS 48 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

GFS48snow

NAM 48 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
NAM48SNOW

Most of the U.S. will see freezing to below freezing minimum temperatures for Thanksgiving and Friday.

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Residents along the Eastern Seaboard, Mid Atlantic, and New England areas should utilize the following graphics which are linked, to receive up to date information, including ANY NWS Statements and Warnings regarding this storm.  Please refresh this page in order to have the graphics update themselves.

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR

The office will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, and remainder of this week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to COASTAL / WINTER STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 26. 2014…10:00 A.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    I hope all had a pleasant and safe Thanksgiving. StormW was on my list of things to be thankful for, and I agree with Greg that we in the Gulf states were lucky not to have gotten hit this year. We had frost last night, but that’s about all. A pleasant post-Thanksgiving weekend to all.

  2. originallt says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to Storm and everyone. Well it was a big “Bust” here in Stamford and all of lower Fairfield Co. CT. and lower Westchester Co. in NY. I got only 1/2″ of snow. Total rain was over 1.50″ however. If one travels 20-40 miles or more inland, N&W of my area, there was over 6″ of snow in many places, up to 10″ in spots. For this storm we had to depend on “Dynamic Cooling” and elevation to get any snow, , thus those of us near the coast we were “out of luck”. There just was no real pocket or area of cold air for this coastal storm to get involved with,or tap into, thus little snow in coastal areas. Temps. remained 33-35F for the whole event, despite constant winds out of the NNW to NNE, which is usually a good direction for us to receive snow.

  3. Mac says:

    Thanks Storm, and a Happy Thanksgiving to all. And I agree with Greg about the hurricane season!!!

  4. Greg goodman says:

    HAPPY THANKSGIVING MR STORM. HAVE A SAFE WEEK. MR STORM WE WAS BLESSED NOT HAVE A HURRICANE HIT THIS YEAR.

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…looks like a beauty for NEUS. Stay safe LT and everyone have a great Thanksgiving!!

  6. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, may you and your family have a wonderful and joyous Thanks Giving!–I’ll check in here tomorrow or late tonight with any snow totals I get.

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