SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 25, 2014…11:10 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms over the Central Florida peninsula.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Soundings this morning out of Tampa, FL. indicated a CAPE value of 362 j/Kg with a forecast SBCAPE of around 2700.  The Lifted Index was -2 and a Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) of 6.1.  The SCP of 6.1 indicates supercells are possible.  However the initial CAPE value and LI indicate a stable environment as of 12Z this morning.

Based on analysis of forecast sounding parameters derived from the GFS and NAM models, via F5 DATA Severe Weather software, forecast parameters tend to indicate more toward multicell and squall line type storms, vice organized supercells.  However, this is not to say there could be isolated embedded supercells within any squall line activity, as deep layer shear is forecast to be on order of 40-50 knots.  This forecast is a little tricky today, as some of the information from the graphics produced by the software, contradicts some of the information in the SPC Outlook.

Based on the discrepancies, and analyzing current radar data, I am forecasting on the side of a more squall line type event.  I cannot totally rule out and isolated tornado incident, however if cloud cover over the area persists throughout the day, any further destabilization of the atmosphere will be difficult.  It appears the main threat from any storms will be damaging thunderstorm winds and gusts, along with heavy rainfall.

Based on parameters analyzed, the greatest chance of severe storms and any isolated tornadoes, should occur within the following outlined area.

F5 DATA NAM SOLUTION
f5.namsevere.1-4pm

Please utilize the following graphics, which are linked to provide updated information.  You may have to refresh this page first, for the graphics to update, prior to clicking on the graphics.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Elsewhere, models are in agreement of a developing coastal storm, possibly initializing by late this afternoon or tonight.  This low will begin to deepen as it approaches the SC/NC coastal regions, and will continue to deepen, reaching a possible 997 mb as it passes the Cape Cod area.  Currently, the forecast sustained winds for this, mainly on the the eastern portion over the water, could attain 35 – 45 mph, and 25 – 30 mph on the NW backside.  Based on analysis of Wave Watch wind and sea height data, flooding and beach erosion may occur along the immediate coastal areas, from NC up to New England.  This will also produce dangerous rip currents.  Small craft should remain off the water.

GFS MODEL SOLUTION
GFS10M

NAM MODEL SOLUTION
NAM.10mwind

WW3 / STORMFURY WIND AND SEA HEIGHT

CAROLINA AREA

NEW JERSEY AREA

NEW ENGLAND AREA

Residents should monitor this, and utilize the NWS Hazards display to retrieve and local NWS Statements and/ or warnings regarding this system.  Along with this, another trof will pass east in the same time frame.  This will allow for more snowfall across portions of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and NE regions of the U.S.  By Friday, night time minimum temperatures should be at, or below freezing over a good majority of the U.S.

GFS 96 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FORECAST
GFS96snow

NAM 84 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FORECAST
06znam4084hoursnowUS084

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

I will try and have another update sometime tomorrow morning on the coastal situation.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 25, 2014…11:10 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Looks like a real sharp snow gradient for this one. For example, in the southern part of Stamford CT. there could be only a trace to 2″ of snow when all is said and done, while North Stamford, could have 4-5″. And that’s only about a 7-8 mile distance. I’ll of course tell you what I wind up with. I am kind of in the geographic center of Stamford, about 1 mile South of the Merritt Parkway, just off of High Ridge Rd. if you can remember where that was.

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