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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms over the Central Florida peninsula.
Soundings this morning out of Tampa, FL. indicated a CAPE value of 362 j/Kg with a forecast SBCAPE of around 2700. The Lifted Index was -2 and a Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) of 6.1. The SCP of 6.1 indicates supercells are possible. However the initial CAPE value and LI indicate a stable environment as of 12Z this morning.
Based on analysis of forecast sounding parameters derived from the GFS and NAM models, via F5 DATA Severe Weather software, forecast parameters tend to indicate more toward multicell and squall line type storms, vice organized supercells. However, this is not to say there could be isolated embedded supercells within any squall line activity, as deep layer shear is forecast to be on order of 40-50 knots. This forecast is a little tricky today, as some of the information from the graphics produced by the software, contradicts some of the information in the SPC Outlook.
Based on the discrepancies, and analyzing current radar data, I am forecasting on the side of a more squall line type event. I cannot totally rule out and isolated tornado incident, however if cloud cover over the area persists throughout the day, any further destabilization of the atmosphere will be difficult. It appears the main threat from any storms will be damaging thunderstorm winds and gusts, along with heavy rainfall.
Based on parameters analyzed, the greatest chance of severe storms and any isolated tornadoes, should occur within the following outlined area.
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Elsewhere, models are in agreement of a developing coastal storm, possibly initializing by late this afternoon or tonight. This low will begin to deepen as it approaches the SC/NC coastal regions, and will continue to deepen, reaching a possible 997 mb as it passes the Cape Cod area. Currently, the forecast sustained winds for this, mainly on the the eastern portion over the water, could attain 35 – 45 mph, and 25 – 30 mph on the NW backside. Based on analysis of Wave Watch wind and sea height data, flooding and beach erosion may occur along the immediate coastal areas, from NC up to New England. This will also produce dangerous rip currents. Small craft should remain off the water.
WW3 / STORMFURY WIND AND SEA HEIGHT
Residents should monitor this, and utilize the NWS Hazards display to retrieve and local NWS Statements and/ or warnings regarding this system. Along with this, another trof will pass east in the same time frame. This will allow for more snowfall across portions of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and NE regions of the U.S. By Friday, night time minimum temperatures should be at, or below freezing over a good majority of the U.S.
I will try and have another update sometime tomorrow morning on the coastal situation.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)