SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS / FORECAST COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 24. 2014…11:50 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the SE and the Ohio Valley.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK


Analysis indicates the main threat for today to be damaging thunderstorm winds associated with any severe storms that may develop.  Albeit analysis of severe weather software this morning doesn’t indicate a real tornado threat, the strongest storms could produce an isolated weak tornado, given the unidirectional wind field.  Based on the output from this mornings NAM model run, the ares in red appear to hold the highest indices probabilities for this occurrence, albeit values are on the very week end of the spectrum.
nam sweat f5

NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY

The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk in the Day 2 Convective Outlook for the Central Florida area.  I will address this in tomorrows synopsis.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Elsewhere, the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC Global models, along with the regional NAM model are in agreement of a coastal low/storm developing off the Eastern Seaboard in about 48 hours, initiating off the Georgia coast, then moving rapidly toward the NNE.

GFS
GFS.PARALELL

ECMWF
ECMWF.SURFACE

CMC
CMC.SURFACE
Currently, models do not indicate a particularly strong system, although current wind and wave models indicate sustained winds off the NJ/New England area could attain TS force winds on the order of 35 knots as it passes these areas.  I am not expecting blizzard conditions inland, as the strongest portion of the system will be over the water.  However more frigid air should spill across the country, and a good portion of the U.S. should prepare for freezing to below freezing temperatures for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

STORM SURF WIND MODEL NJ / NEW ENGLAND

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NJ / NEW ENGLAND

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

The following maps are 84 and 96 hours snowfall accumulation projections from the NAM and GFS models from 12Z this morning.

NAM
12znam4084hoursnowUS084

GFS
12zgfs96hoursnowUS096

I will continue to monitor these situations, and will most likely have an update again tomorrow, late morning.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS / FORECAST COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 24. 2014…11:50 A.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. We’ve got high winds headed our way. I’ll post them if we get anything outlandish.

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