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Good day everyone!
The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the SE and the Ohio Valley.
Analysis indicates the main threat for today to be damaging thunderstorm winds associated with any severe storms that may develop. Albeit analysis of severe weather software this morning doesn’t indicate a real tornado threat, the strongest storms could produce an isolated weak tornado, given the unidirectional wind field. Based on the output from this mornings NAM model run, the ares in red appear to hold the highest indices probabilities for this occurrence, albeit values are on the very week end of the spectrum.
The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk in the Day 2 Convective Outlook for the Central Florida area. I will address this in tomorrows synopsis.
Elsewhere, the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC Global models, along with the regional NAM model are in agreement of a coastal low/storm developing off the Eastern Seaboard in about 48 hours, initiating off the Georgia coast, then moving rapidly toward the NNE.
Currently, models do not indicate a particularly strong system, although current wind and wave models indicate sustained winds off the NJ/New England area could attain TS force winds on the order of 35 knots as it passes these areas. I am not expecting blizzard conditions inland, as the strongest portion of the system will be over the water. However more frigid air should spill across the country, and a good portion of the U.S. should prepare for freezing to below freezing temperatures for the Thanksgiving Holiday.
The following maps are 84 and 96 hours snowfall accumulation projections from the NAM and GFS models from 12Z this morning.
I will continue to monitor these situations, and will most likely have an update again tomorrow, late morning.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)