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UPDATE…1:25 P.M. EST…NOV. 23, 2014:
The SPC has since dropped the ENHANCED risk area.
Good day everyone!
The SPC, Norman OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms from portions of the Lower MS Valley, into the Tidewater Region…
There is a SLIGHT risk from the Central Gulf Coast to the Eastern Carolinas…
There is a MARGINAL risk over a part of the Northern Gulf Coast…
Based on information contained in the outlook, a 90 – 100 knot Mid Level Jet Streak will continue eastward today, before turning toward the NE and intensifying as it enters the risk areas late this afternoon, into the evening.
In response to the thermodynamic and kinematics of the the current MCS to the west of the area, and strengthening Mid Level Jet, will allow for the expansion and strengthening of a SWLY LLJ (Southwesterly Low Level Jet). This will allow for the severe threat to carry over into the Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard in the over night hours.
Based on analysis of Severe Weather software data from the GFS and NAM models, it appears the NAM may have a better handle on the situation. However, I am a little perplexed as to why an enhanced threat was issued, as certain severe weather indices do not support a great probability of severe thunderstorms, although this could change as the newer model runs post. Regardless, based on the information in the current outlook, isolated tornadoes may occur within the slight risk area, with the greater probability in the enhanced risk area. Certain tornado parameters analyzed, do however suggest a threat for isolated tornado activity, and the greatest probability based on the NAM model output through the software, is outlined in the white circle areas:
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Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)