You may click on the graphics for animations and close in views
YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED…
Your donation helps keep this site operational. Funds assist in web hosting, weather software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.) Your help is appreciated.
Good day everyone!
ALL SPC AND NWS GRAPHICS ARE LINKED…CLICK FOR UP TO DATE INFORMATION
The SPC in Norman, OK. has designated a small MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER NORTHWEST TX INTO SRN OK…in the Day 1 Convective Outlook
*NOTE: As I was typing this synopsis, SPC changed the MARGINAL outline which now coincides with the F5 Data software. The new outline is posted above.
Analysis of various indices from both the GFS and NAM models output from F5 Data Severe Weather software indicates, along with the outlook, that hail should be the primary risk for this event. Based on information in the outlook, regarding the position of the mid level trof moving eastward, the threat of severe weather could initiate as early as 6:00 p.m. CST, however the greatest probability appears to initiate around 9:00 p.m. CST through midnight. Analysis suggests the area shifts more toward the south, and the increased probability for isolated tornado activity increases, based on the forecast thermodynamic profile. I have drawn circled areas from both models as to where the greatest probability of severe weather may occur. The modeling is keeping the energy, south of the marginal outline from the SPC. Albeit the SPC official forecast is in the marginal outline, I cannot ignore what the models have been showing for their solutions over the past 24 hours.
The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Convective Outlook ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND THE TX GULF COAST…
A SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms has been designated ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY…
A MARGINAL risk has been designated ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS…LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST…
Currently, based on analysis of Severe Weather software, the models show a discrepancy regarding the location of severe parameters, in that the positioning is further to the west of the ENHANCED outline. I am going to try and have another update on this sometime this afternoon, after I can analyze the next complete run of the GFS and NAM models. So please ensure you can access this synopsis for this morning and evening, as the update for Day 2 will replace it. I will not be in the office tomorrow, as I work tomorrow.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)