SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AFTERNOON UPDATE…ISSUED NOV. 21, 2014…3:40 P.M. EST

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SECONDARY UPDATE ISSUED 7:30 A.M. EST, NOV. 22, 2014:

Well, another monkey wrench…as I haven’t had time to reanalyze anything, the SPC has shifted the ENHANCED threat to the east and for tomorrow.  Today’s outlook only calls for a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms.  Please refer to the SPC maps on their site.  This shift means, that all the model info I plotted yesterday may be out the window.

UPDATE TO THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK…ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE 3:20 P.M. EST: I have decided just to update this synopsis, vice losing the current information.  You will find Severe Weather outlines with the F5 Data software maps as the base, regarding the ENHANCED risk area for tomorrow.  You’ll not there are discrepancies, however it is the most current information per the models. ALL SPC AND NWS GRAPHICS ARE LINKED…CLICK FOR UP TO DATE INFORMATION

Good day everyone!

The SPC in Norman, OK. has designated a small MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER NORTHWEST TX INTO SRN OKin the Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

*NOTE: As I was typing this synopsis, SPC changed the MARGINAL outline which now coincides with the F5 Data software. The new outline is posted above.

Analysis of various indices from both the GFS and NAM models output from F5 Data Severe Weather software indicates, along with the outlook, that hail should be the primary risk for this event.  Based on information in the outlook, regarding the position of the mid level trof moving eastward, the threat of severe weather could initiate as early as 6:00 p.m. CST, however the greatest probability appears to initiate around 9:00 p.m. CST through midnight.  Analysis suggests the area shifts more toward the south, and the increased probability for isolated tornado activity increases, based on the forecast thermodynamic profile.  I have drawn circled areas from both models as to where the greatest probability of severe weather may occur.  The modeling is keeping the energy, south of the marginal outline from the SPC.  Albeit the SPC official forecast is in the marginal outline, I cannot ignore what the models have been showing for their solutions over the past 24 hours.

F5 DATA GFS BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY MAPS 9:00 PM. / MIDNIGHT CST f5.gfssevere.9pm

f5.gfssevere.12am

NAM OUTPUT MAPS f5.namsevere.9pm

f5.namsevere.12am

The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Convective Outlook ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND THE TX GULF COAST…

A SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms has been designated ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY…

A MARGINAL risk has been designated ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS…LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Currently, based on analysis of Severe Weather software, the models show a discrepancy regarding the location of severe parameters, in that the positioning is further to the west of the ENHANCED outline.   Per my update statement, the 12Z runs of both the GFS and NAM models show some differences in their solutions.  Based on indices I have analyzed, and various severe weather parameters, the following maps indicate where the best likely areas lie for severe thunderstorms (WHITE OUTLINE) and isolated tornado activity (RED HATCHED or RED CIRCLED AREA).

BOTH models initiate the activity around 9:00 a.m. CST, moving it slightly southward over the same vicinity.  The GFS drops it after 12:00 noon CST, however the NAM weakens the area slightly, then shows stronger activity east of the area, which coincides with most of the SPC ENHANCED risk area, and carries the event to 6:00 p.m. CST.  Right now, I have no idea if SPC will re-designate the area westward in the a.m. or not, as they did this a.m. when they extended today’s marginal outlook.  In any event, all the SPC maps are linked for current updated information.

F5 DATA GFS OUTPUT
f5.day2gfssevere.3pm

NAM MODEL OUTPUT f5.day2namsevere.9am

NAM 12P.M. CST f5.day2namsevere.12pm

f5.day2namsevere.6pm

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARD DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Have a blessed day! T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret) METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS CoCoRAHS OBSERVER OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AFTERNOON UPDATE…ISSUED NOV. 21, 2014…3:40 P.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Sending out info.

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