SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 20, 2014…11:55 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms over west central Texas and a MARGINAL risk over portions from portions of SWRN through W Texas, NWRN Texas, and SWRN Oklahoma in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on information provided in the outlook, and from analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather Software, the main threat appears to be hail over the risk area. The severe threat appears to initiate by late Friday evening, with a window from approximately 9:00 p.m. – 3:00 a.m. CST.  Based on a blend of the GFS and NAM output in the software, the circled area has the best probability of the severe weather threat.  Albeit the main threat should be hail, an isolated tornado event cannot be ruled out within the area closer to midnight or after, should thunderstorm cells manage to become more surface based.  I will have a better idea on this in the a.m., once model information has had a chance to update throughout the day, and early tomorrow morning.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PROBABILITY (PRELIMINARY)
f5.namsevere.1

Elsewhere, the SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms over a portion of central through SERN Texas in the Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

There is a SLIGHT risk issued from central and ERN Texas, into the Lower MS Valley.

There is a MARGINAL risk over a large portion of Texas, into the Lower MS VALLEY.

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Based on information contained in the outlook, and analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather Software, forecast sounding data and indices indicate conditions will be right for the development of supercell thunderstorms.  Based on the severe weather software output from the GFS and NAM models, this could begin as early as 12:00 p.m. CST, however it appears the main threat would arrive between 3:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. CST.  The area most probable to the severe threat should lie within the SLIGHT and ENHANCED risk areas, with the highest probability of isolated tornado activity within the ENHANCED risk area.

Based on a blend of both the GFS and NAM output this morning, the greatest probability for isolated tornadic activity should lie within the outline I have drawn, and reach the greatest potential between 3:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. CST.  Again, this will most likely modify somewhat as model information updates between now and Saturday morning.  I will try to have an update on Friday afternoon, as I work Saturday morning.  I will however post Doppler Radar sites, as well as the NWS Hazards display, which will keep you updated as to any NWS Warnings.

TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA (PRELIMINARY)
f5.namtor.2

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 20, 2014…11:55 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, is that very rainy area around and just South of Key West anything “tropical”?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Definitely watching day 3.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm! I am keeping an eye on it. Should affect us sometime Saturday afternoon to night.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, looks might it could get rough in Texas in a day or two, or three!

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