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Good day everyone! My low temp here at the office was 39F this morning.
The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms over a portion of west central Texas, and NWRN Texas in the Day 3 SPC Severe Weather Outlook
Analysis this morning of F5 Data software indicates any severe weather should be limited to the outlined area, albeit the model solutions indicate the bulk to be a little further south into the marginal area on the map.
Based on analysis of various severe weather indices, and per the SPC Outlook, the main severe threat on Friday should be hail / gust thunderstorm winds. As of analysis this morning, parameters didn’t really indicate support for tornadic activity. I will however continue to monitor the progress of this for any changes. This event based on analysis, should onset around late evening (9:00 p.m. CDT).
Elsewhere, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) still indicates a severe weather probability in the SPC Day 4 Outlook.
Analysis of the F5 Data Severe Weather Software, which produces a graphical depiction of various severe weather indices based on Global and Regional model solutions, indicates the strong likelihood of Severe Thunderstorm activity. Based on the output, severe weather could initiate approx. around 11:00 a.m. CDT, however the higher probability right now appears to initiate in the hours of 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. CDT.
The following maps (Circled areas drawn in by me) are from the GFS output from the F5 Data software. The first indicates, based on the current forecast, where the most likely probability of severe weather will occur between the hours mentioned. The second map indicates where the most likely probability for isolated tornadic activity could occur between the hours mentioned.
Again, analysis of wind profiles from the surface, up to the 200 mb level, indicates both directional and speed shear, which should produce some rotating supercells.
In addition, the area will be within the Left Exit Region of a powerful jetstreak of 100 – 105 knots. The significance of this is, the Left Exit Region of the jetstreak produces a tremendous amount of lift. During the time frame mentioned, the trof associated with this system, will become negatively tilted, which indicates a strengthening of the trof.
I will continue to monitor the progress of the severe weather threat for any changes, and will try to keep you updated as much as I can.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)