PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV, 19, 2014…10:05 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!  My low temp here at the office was 39F this morning.

The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms over a portion of west central Texas, and NWRN Texas in the Day 3 SPC Severe Weather Outlook

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK



Analysis this morning of F5 Data software indicates any severe weather should be limited to the outlined area, albeit the model solutions indicate the bulk to be a little further south into the marginal area on the map.

Based on analysis of various severe weather indices, and per the SPC Outlook, the main severe threat on Friday should be hail / gust thunderstorm winds.  As of analysis this morning, parameters didn’t really indicate support for tornadic activity.  I will however continue to monitor the progress of this for any changes.  This event based on analysis, should onset around late evening (9:00 p.m. CDT).

Elsewhere, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) still indicates a severe weather probability in the SPC Day 4 Outlook.

SPC DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Analysis of the F5 Data Severe Weather Software, which produces a graphical depiction of various severe weather indices based on Global and Regional model solutions, indicates the strong likelihood of Severe Thunderstorm activity.  Based on the output, severe weather could initiate approx. around 11:00 a.m. CDT, however the higher probability right now appears to initiate in the hours of 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. CDT.

The following maps (Circled areas drawn in by me) are from the GFS output from the F5 Data software.  The first indicates, based on the current forecast, where the most likely probability of severe weather will occur between the hours mentioned.  The second map indicates where the most likely probability for isolated tornadic activity could occur between the hours mentioned.

SEVERE PROBABILITY
f5 gfs.satsweat

ISOLATED TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5 gfs.secondtor

Again, analysis of wind profiles from the surface, up to the 200 mb level, indicates both directional and speed shear, which should produce some rotating supercells.

850 MB / PRECIPITABLE WATER PROFILE
GFS.850PW

500 MB WIND PROFILE
gfs500

JETSTREAM PROFILE
GFS.JET

In addition, the area will be within the Left Exit Region of a powerful jetstreak of 100 – 105 knots.  The significance of this is, the Left Exit Region of the jetstreak produces a tremendous amount of lift.  During the time frame mentioned, the trof associated with this system, will become negatively tilted, which indicates a strengthening of the trof.

I will continue to monitor the progress of the severe weather threat for any changes, and will try to keep you updated as much as I can.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV, 19, 2014…10:05 A.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Pretty much passing this along to everyone in TX/LA that I know. Thanks always Storm for staying on top of it!!

    Don’t feel too bad Dellamom and Mac. We hit -14F at KDEN last week. We managed to get to -11F where I am.

  2. dellamom says:

    What does it say, Mac? I live in Mandeville in the area behind Church of the King, and I work in Madisonville on Hwy. 21.

  3. Mac says:

    25F this morning in Covington, LA! Likely to be the second record low temp in the past 10 days at LIX (NWS office in Slidell, LA). This is January weather for us here in lower SE Louisiana. Looking like the Farmer’s Almanac might be correct…

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