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Good morning all!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the NERN GULF COAST TO SERN NC.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS FL GULF COAST TO ERN NC/SERN VA.
Analysis of various severe weather forecast parameters indicate the severe weather threat outline as per the SPC discussion. My analysis reveals that certain values of these parameters indicate only the possible chance for an isolated tornado or so which should be limited to any supercells that can attain rotation, embedded within the line of heavier thunderstorm activity. At the moment, I am not expecting any terribly strong or long lived tornadoes, should tornadic activity initiate. It appears in analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather software, which draws graphics from the Global models and NAM regional model information, that most of the energy associated with the approaching frontal system, is well to the south of the outline area. SBCAPE and MUCAPE values should average between 500 – a little over 1000 J/kg in some pockets within the outline, with minimal lift and rotation being forecast.
The greatest chance for severe weather, especially any tornadic activity, is outlined in the pink area.
Regardless, residents within the risk area should maintain a close watch, and take appropriate action should a TORNADO WARNING be issued.
Tornado watches have already been issued this morning, and the bulk of any severe activity should be ongoing now, until around 1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. EST.
Please use the following graphics, which are linked to pertinent information, to your benefit. All you have to do is click on the graphic.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)