SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 17, 2014…9:45 A.M. EST

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Good morning all!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the NERN GULF COAST TO SERN NC.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS FL GULF COAST TO ERN NC/SERN VA.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP

Analysis of various severe weather forecast parameters indicate the severe weather threat outline as per the SPC discussion.  My analysis reveals that certain values of these parameters indicate only the possible chance for an isolated tornado or so which should be limited to any supercells that can attain rotation, embedded within the line of heavier thunderstorm activity.  At the moment, I am not expecting any terribly strong or long lived tornadoes, should tornadic activity initiate.  It appears in analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather software, which draws graphics from the Global models and NAM regional model information, that most of the energy associated with the approaching frontal system, is well to the south of the outline area.  SBCAPE and MUCAPE values should average between 500 – a little over 1000 J/kg in some pockets within the outline, with minimal lift and rotation being forecast.

The greatest chance for severe weather, especially any tornadic activity, is outlined in the pink area.

SEVERE OUTLINE
day1otlk_1300

Regardless, residents within the risk area should maintain a close watch, and take appropriate action should a TORNADO WARNING be issued.

Tornado watches have already been issued this morning, and the bulk of any severe activity should be ongoing now, until around 1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. EST.

Please use the following graphics, which are linked to pertinent information, to your benefit.  All you have to do is click on the graphic.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR STATE OR AREA OF INTEREST)

DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 17, 2014…9:45 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    I received, 1.85″ of rain on Monday, no frozen precip. at all. Now down to 29F, should get down into the teens by Wed. am. Sunny now windy and cold. Great call on where the tornadoes would be Storm, glad none were too bad. Sorry about your anemometer , dellamom, hope the manufacturer can send you replacement ones, and that they won’t cost too much.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Stay safe my friend!! Hope all I OK with you and yours Dellamom.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. Stay safe in the coming weather. We had it last night and one of the many thunder/lightening events was so close, my nephew in New Zealand with whom we were on Skype thought someone had shot a gun in the room we were in because of the loud noise and bright flash, and his normally unflappable mother jumped and yelled a bit. It was interesting to say the least, but I did not notice major property damage or downed tree limbs as I have in the past, so I can only assume the wind was not as bad as it has sometimes been. I was sorry to discover that the part of my as-yet-uninstalled weather equipment that measures wind has had two of the little cups broken off. I am not happy about that since I am not the person who packed that particular box. Again, stay safe and thank you for alerting us to events headed our way.

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