TROPICAL WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 11, 2014…10:40 A.M. EST

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Happy Veterans day everyone!

Analysis this morning indicated the tropics are quiet.  There is an area of low pressure just east of the Florida east coast.  I am not expecting any development from this, and it should remain a baroclinic feature.  Current motion is toward the east, however a motion toward the NE and away from the U.S. should begin by later today.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Some very cold air is still forecast to plunge southward, and take its hold in about 3 – 5 days from today.  Analysis of both the Global Models, and regional NAM model does show some difference between the models as to how cold this air will be, and how far south the freezing line will extend.  It does appear for the most part, that a decent portion of TX and the north to central portions of the Gulf Coast states will experience below freezing minimum temperatures from this outbreak.  The freezing line is depicted as the dark blue, solid line on the 2 meter temperature maps of the Global Models.  The ECMWF map indicates temperature values forecast at the 850 mb level (5,000 ft).

06Z NAM
NAM.2MT

CMC
CMC.2MT

GFS
GFS.2MT

GFS FORECAST STATION PLOTS (MINIMUM TEMPERATURES)
GFSSTATION

ECMWF 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ECMWF850STATION

The GFS and NAM models show quite a difference in projected snowfall totals.  The NAM goes out to 84 hours from today, from 06Z, and the GFS maps 96 and 120 hours respectively.

NAM SNOWFALL OUTPUT 84 HOUR FORECAST
NAMSNOW

GFS 96 HOUR SNOWFALL OUTPUT

GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL OUTPUT

Please utilize the following graphics for frost and freeze information, and the NWS Hazard map for statements and/or warnings from your local NWS office.

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE MAP

NWS HAZARDS MAP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR NWS INFORMATION)

Have a blessed day, and stay warm!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 11, 2014…10:40 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    May have a little snow accumulation here in Stamford CT. by Friday Morning. I’ll check in on Friday and tell you all if I got any. Right now it’s 46F so it will have to drop quite a bit tonight for snow to happen, but it might.

  2. dellamom says:

    Locals just today saying a freeze warning tonight both sides of the lake; forecasting 29 on the Northshore tonight and tomorrow nights. Gotta cover the new fruit trees!

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Thank you Mr storm for the service to our country.

  4. Mac says:

    A belated Veterans Day thanks to you Storm and all who served. Our NWS forecast discussion this A.M. is forecasting a possible record low temp for Thurs and/or Fri nights.

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Echo Dellamom as well. A balmy 10 degrees above zero here right now.

  6. originallt says:

    I Echo what dellamom says 100%!!!

  7. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for your thorough and understandable reports over the years and for the years of service to our country. Thank you, also, to all other active and former service men and women on this site. And a final thank you to all service families, who make it possible for our defenders to serve.

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