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Happy Veterans day everyone!
Analysis this morning indicated the tropics are quiet. There is an area of low pressure just east of the Florida east coast. I am not expecting any development from this, and it should remain a baroclinic feature. Current motion is toward the east, however a motion toward the NE and away from the U.S. should begin by later today.
Some very cold air is still forecast to plunge southward, and take its hold in about 3 – 5 days from today. Analysis of both the Global Models, and regional NAM model does show some difference between the models as to how cold this air will be, and how far south the freezing line will extend. It does appear for the most part, that a decent portion of TX and the north to central portions of the Gulf Coast states will experience below freezing minimum temperatures from this outbreak. The freezing line is depicted as the dark blue, solid line on the 2 meter temperature maps of the Global Models. The ECMWF map indicates temperature values forecast at the 850 mb level (5,000 ft).
The GFS and NAM models show quite a difference in projected snowfall totals. The NAM goes out to 84 hours from today, from 06Z, and the GFS maps 96 and 120 hours respectively.
Please utilize the following graphics for frost and freeze information, and the NWS Hazard map for statements and/or warnings from your local NWS office.
Have a blessed day, and stay warm!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)