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Good day to everyone!
Nothing to mention in the tropics this morning other than in analysis earlier, an upper level low was noted near 19.0N:47.0W and is moving toward the west. I was going to monitor this over the next few days to see if a surface reflection would become evident, however in the last few frames of satellite loop imagery, it appears this feature may on it’s way to dissipating. I’ll keep this on the back burner anyway, in case anything changes.
As discussed in my previous synopsis, the remnant of Typhoon Nuri is affecting the Bearing Sea area, and will be disrupting the Polar jet. The complex process WILL allow for displacement of the Polar Vortex, allowing for much colder air to plunge southward. Based on analysis of forecast surface maps, and 850 MB temperatures, the “freezing line”, noted as the thick blue line on both the GFS and CMC GEM models, will reach down into Texas, and into the northern to central portions of most of the Gulf Coast states. This is forecast to occur OOA (On Or About) NOV. 13 – 14. The GFS map provides projected minimum temperatures on the 14th.
The current AO Index forecast indicates the premise of colder air heading south, by the large dip into the negative potion of the index.
As of this synopsis, the only map available for snowfall projections was the GFS 120 hour forecast.
As this begins to take shape, I should have more information to post, such as freeze and frost products, and the interactive NWS Hazards map.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)
Have a blessed day!