TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COLD WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 10, 2014…11:00 A.M. EST

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Good day to everyone!

Nothing to mention in the tropics this morning other than in analysis earlier, an upper level low was noted near 19.0N:47.0W and is moving toward the west.  I was going to monitor this over the next few days to see if a surface reflection would become evident, however in the last few frames of satellite loop imagery, it appears this feature may on it’s way to dissipating.  I’ll keep this on the back burner anyway, in case anything changes.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

As discussed in my previous synopsis, the remnant of Typhoon Nuri is affecting the Bearing Sea area, and will be disrupting the Polar jet.  The complex process WILL allow for displacement of the Polar Vortex, allowing for much colder air to plunge southward.  Based on analysis of forecast surface maps, and 850 MB temperatures, the “freezing line”, noted as the thick blue line on both the GFS and CMC GEM models, will reach down into Texas, and into the northern to central portions of most of the Gulf Coast states.  This is forecast to occur OOA (On Or About) NOV. 13 –  14.  The GFS map provides projected minimum temperatures on the 14th.

GFS
GFS.2MT
GFSMIN
CMC
CMC.2MT

The current AO Index forecast indicates the premise of colder air heading south, by the large dip into the negative potion of the index.

AO INDEX ENSEMBLE FORECAST

As of this synopsis, the only map available for snowfall projections was the GFS 120 hour forecast.

GFS 120 HOUR PROJECTED SNOWFALL OUTPUT VALID 06Z SAT NOV 15

As this begins to take shape, I should have more information to post, such as freeze and frost products, and the interactive NWS Hazards map.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Have a blessed day!

As

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COLD WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 10, 2014…11:00 A.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. The temps started out around 60 this morning. Right now…it’s 36 in Denver and dropping sharply. Snow to the North and West heading this way. Wednesday’s highs will be around 10 above. Prayers to Dellamom and all caught in the path of this Arctic outbreak.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you so much Storm. We put citrus trees in this summer and it’s good to know what’s coming so I can have precautions in place. I hope you and yours are well. Prayers to all who will be impacted by this unusual weather.

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