TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COLDER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 7, 2014…7:20 P.M. EST

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Good evening everyone!

An area of disturbed weather still persists over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands.  I am not expecting any development from this area.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Folks have been asking about the remnants of Typhhon Nuri in the NPAC an the effects down the road on U.S. weather.  Upon analysis of various items in my arsenal, it appears steering currents will take this remnant toward the S.W. Alaskan islands in the next 48 – 60 hours.  Models indicate sub 950 to 942 mb pressures.  Seas around the area are forecast in the 40 – 45 ft range close to the center of the system.  Winds of strong tropical storm force will most likely occur over the Bering Sea, and this low, being baroclinic in nature, will have an extremely large wind field, albeit strongest winds should be closer toward the center, but still on the order of 100 – 150 miles from the center.

ECMWF 1000 – 500 THICKNESS (NOTICE ALASKA)
ECMWFNURI

GFS
GFS2

ALASKA SEA HEIGHTS (CLICK TO ANIMATE)

ALASKA WIND VELOCITIES

Based on my analysis, it appears as what to is going to occur is, the low having been a warm cored system, will add energy to the western portion of the Jetstream.  Given the low will be quite strong, this will amplify the strength of the High to the east, eventually allowing the Jetstream to “buckle”, causing an amplification of the ridge/trof pattern, and setting up an “Omega” blocking type pattern.  Evidently, this process allows for the colder air to the west to remain over the west (Alaska area), keeping very cold air from entering a portion of CA.  The air is then, “forced” to go up and over the block, and then allowed to flow southward.  It appears this process displaces a portion of the Polar Vortex, allowing for more frigid temperatures to head toward the south.  We do have some colder air on tap for nighttime minimums over the weekend, however the more frigid air ushers in by Friday the 14th.  This is all pretty much backed up by the indication of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) heading negative around that time.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION INDEX FORECAST

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

The following maps show surface tempertures forecast by the models, as well as 850 mb temperatures shown in the ECMWF model output.  Just for your info, if you want to get an approximation of high temperatures for the day, or low temperatures for the evening, find the 850 mb temp. for your area…multiply that by 1.8, and add 32 (as the temps shown are in Celsius).  To find the high temp., we “drag” the 850 mb to the surface.  For that,  add another 27.0 – 27.5 to the total you calculated…this will approximate the days high temperature.  For the minimum, do not add the 27.0 – 27.5

ECMWF 850 MB TEMPERATURES STATION VALUES FORECAST
ECMWF850STATION
GFS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST
GFS1

CMC SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST
CMC.SURFACETEMPS

I will try to have projected computer model snowfall maps as we get closer next week to the frigid air intruding south.

Have a blessed evening, and keep warm!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COLDER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 7, 2014…7:20 P.M. EST

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    They have us at a high of 48 this coming Friday here in SE TX. Pretty cold for this time of year.

  2. originallt says:

    Thank you so much for your clear report on that big storm up there off the Western Alaska Coast, and it’s “down stream ” effects. We’ll all be watching it! . –P.S. hope your Son is OK.

  3. greg goodman says:

    mr storm do you think it is safe to say you can stick a fork in the rest of hurricane season?

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like we get spared the brunt…but not by much. Forecasters now have our highs in the mid 20s next Wed and falling everyday. God help you down South and to the East.

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