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Good evening everyone!
An area of disturbed weather still persists over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands. I am not expecting any development from this area.
Folks have been asking about the remnants of Typhhon Nuri in the NPAC an the effects down the road on U.S. weather. Upon analysis of various items in my arsenal, it appears steering currents will take this remnant toward the S.W. Alaskan islands in the next 48 – 60 hours. Models indicate sub 950 to 942 mb pressures. Seas around the area are forecast in the 40 – 45 ft range close to the center of the system. Winds of strong tropical storm force will most likely occur over the Bering Sea, and this low, being baroclinic in nature, will have an extremely large wind field, albeit strongest winds should be closer toward the center, but still on the order of 100 – 150 miles from the center.
Based on my analysis, it appears as what to is going to occur is, the low having been a warm cored system, will add energy to the western portion of the Jetstream. Given the low will be quite strong, this will amplify the strength of the High to the east, eventually allowing the Jetstream to “buckle”, causing an amplification of the ridge/trof pattern, and setting up an “Omega” blocking type pattern. Evidently, this process allows for the colder air to the west to remain over the west (Alaska area), keeping very cold air from entering a portion of CA. The air is then, “forced” to go up and over the block, and then allowed to flow southward. It appears this process displaces a portion of the Polar Vortex, allowing for more frigid temperatures to head toward the south. We do have some colder air on tap for nighttime minimums over the weekend, however the more frigid air ushers in by Friday the 14th. This is all pretty much backed up by the indication of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) heading negative around that time.
The following maps show surface tempertures forecast by the models, as well as 850 mb temperatures shown in the ECMWF model output. Just for your info, if you want to get an approximation of high temperatures for the day, or low temperatures for the evening, find the 850 mb temp. for your area…multiply that by 1.8, and add 32 (as the temps shown are in Celsius). To find the high temp., we “drag” the 850 mb to the surface. For that, add another 27.0 – 27.5 to the total you calculated…this will approximate the days high temperature. For the minimum, do not add the 27.0 – 27.5
I will try to have projected computer model snowfall maps as we get closer next week to the frigid air intruding south.
Have a blessed evening, and keep warm!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)